Market icon

Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?

Market icon

Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?

LogoWatch Stream
LogoWatch Stream
0% chance
Polymarket

$7,110 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$7,110 Vol.

This is a market on whether SpaceX will successfully complete a launch of the next Starship intended to reach outer space, currently dubbed "SN20", by March 31, 2023. A successful launch will mean that Starship takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. If the Starship completes a successful launch by March 31 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship or replacement of "SN20" with another vehicle (i.e. "SN21", etc.) will have no bearing on the outcome of the market. Any SpaceX Starship launch that is not intended for outer space will have no bearing on the market. This market will resolve solely on whether the first Starship launch intended to reach outer space will successfully reach 62 miles above sea level by March 31, 2023.

This is a market on whether SpaceX will successfully complete a launch of the next Starship intended to reach outer space, currently dubbed "SN20", by March 31, 2023. A successful launch will mean that Starship takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. If the Starship completes a successful launch by March 31 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship or replacement of "SN20" with another vehicle (i.e. "SN21", etc.) will have no bearing on the outcome of the market. Any SpaceX Starship launch that is not intended for outer space will have no bearing on the market. This market will resolve solely on whether the first Starship launch intended to reach outer space will successfully reach 62 miles above sea level by March 31, 2023.

Related

Market icon

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

4%
Market icon

SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

4%
Market icon

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

61%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 9, 2023. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.