$16,105 Vol.
$16,105 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Department of Defense (DoD) ends its business relationship with Anthropic or bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models by DoD personnel or DoD contractors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Department of Defense (DoD) ends its business relationship with Anthropic or bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models by DoD personnel or DoD contractors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At: Feb 16, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$16,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Created At
Feb 16, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...$16,105 Vol.
$16,105 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Department of Defense (DoD) ends its business relationship with Anthropic or bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models by DoD personnel or DoD contractors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Department of Defense (DoD) ends its business relationship with Anthropic or bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models by DoD personnel or DoD contractors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude.
A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude.
Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Created At
Feb 16, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?" has generated $16.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current probability for "Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.
The resolution rules for "Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions