Market icon

Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?

Market icon

Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?

0% chance
Polymarket

$18,874 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$18,874 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military attack" is any use of force executed by Pakistan on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if an Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Pakistani missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Pakistani federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

Pakistan striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Iranian territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$18,874
End Date
Jan 20, 2024
Market Opened
Jan 17, 2024, 4:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military attack" is any use of force executed by Pakistan on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if an Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Pakistani missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Pakistani federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count. Pakistan striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Iranian territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military attack" is any use of force executed by Pakistan on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if an Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Pakistani missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Pakistani federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

Pakistan striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Iranian territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$18,874
End Date
Jan 20, 2024
Market Opened
Jan 17, 2024, 4:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military attack" is any use of force executed by Pakistan on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if an Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Pakistani missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Pakistani federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count. Pakistan striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Iranian territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?" has generated $18.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 17, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.