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Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?

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Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?

The first round of France's 2022 presidential election was held on April 10, 2022. As an absolute majority was not won by any candidate, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates: incumbent president Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen on April 24, 2022.  If Emmanuel Macron wins round two of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of valid cast votes, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election is not held by January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The percentage of votes awarded to Macron will be decided by dividing the number of votes Macron receives by the sum of votes that Macron receives and votes that Le Pen receives, and multiplying by 100. I.e. Percentage = (#Macron / [#Macron + #Le Pen]) * 100. The figures for the number of votes each candidate received will be derived from the table expressing data from the 2nd round election on the official election results page hosted by the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html). Specifically, the number of votes each candidate receives will be derived from the number in the “Voix” column next to each respective candidate’s name.

The first round of France's 2022 presidential election was held on April 10, 2022. As an absolute majority was not won by any candidate, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates: incumbent president Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen on April 24, 2022.  If Emmanuel Macron wins round two of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of valid cast votes, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election is not held by January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The percentage of votes awarded to Macron will be decided by dividing the number of votes Macron receives by the sum of votes that Macron receives and votes that Le Pen receives, and multiplying by 100. I.e. Percentage = (#Macron / [#Macron + #Le Pen]) * 100. The figures for the number of votes each candidate received will be derived from the table expressing data from the 2nd round election on the official election results page hosted by the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html). Specifically, the number of votes each candidate receives will be derived from the number in the “Voix” column next to each respective candidate’s name.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?" has generated $20.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.