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Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?

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Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?

Banksy is a pseudonymous England-based street artist, political activist, and film director whose real name and identity remain unconfirmed and the subject of speculation. Sotheby’s nearest biannual Banksy sale is open for bidding from April 20 to 26, 2022. This is a market on the final hammer price for Girl with Balloon – Colour AP (Purple) (Lot 5), to be auctioned at Sotheby’s, where bidding is scheduled to open on April 20 (9:00 AM ET) and close on April 26 (11:05 AM ET), 2022 (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/banksy/girl-with-balloon-colour-ap-purple). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final Hammer Price at auction equals to or exceeds 500,000 GBP, and “No” otherwise. Note: this is a market on the final hammer price at the live auction, which does not include buyer’s premium, fees, or taxes, and is not equivalent to “Lot Sold” price as listed on Sotheby’s website. If, for whatever reason, Sotheby’s does not provide a live broadcast, the recording of the auction, nor the hammer price elsewhere, this market will resolve to the price listed on Sotheby's website. If the auction is cancelled altogether and will not happen by May 3, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”.

Banksy is a pseudonymous England-based street artist, political activist, and film director whose real name and identity remain unconfirmed and the subject of speculation. Sotheby’s nearest biannual Banksy sale is open for bidding from April 20 to 26, 2022. This is a market on the final hammer price for Girl with Balloon – Colour AP (Purple) (Lot 5), to be auctioned at Sotheby’s, where bidding is scheduled to open on April 20 (9:00 AM ET) and close on April 26 (11:05 AM ET), 2022 (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/banksy/girl-with-balloon-colour-ap-purple). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final Hammer Price at auction equals to or exceeds 500,000 GBP, and “No” otherwise. Note: this is a market on the final hammer price at the live auction, which does not include buyer’s premium, fees, or taxes, and is not equivalent to “Lot Sold” price as listed on Sotheby’s website. If, for whatever reason, Sotheby’s does not provide a live broadcast, the recording of the auction, nor the hammer price elsewhere, this market will resolve to the price listed on Sotheby's website. If the auction is cancelled altogether and will not happen by May 3, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 19, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Girl with Balloon (by Banksy) sell for £500k or more at Sotheby’s?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.