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Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?

Market icon

Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$136,667 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$136,667 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/.

Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly.

If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”

Volume
$136,667
End Date
Nov 16, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 2:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/. Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/.

Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly.

If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”

Volume
$136,667
End Date
Nov 16, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 2:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/. Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?" has generated $136.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.