Name: Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?
Start: 2025-12-23T19:06:25.780647Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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60 Minutes produced a segment called “Inside CECOT” that investigated the alleged harsh treatment of Venezuelan migrants deported under U.S. policy to El Salvador’s CECOT prison. However, CBS pulled the report from its U.S. broadcast hours before it was set to air, saying it wasn’t ready and needed more reporting, a decision critics have called a pretext. You can read more about this here: https://apnews.com/article/60-minutes-trump-weiss-cecot-56c68d45c3d6bc7183f23aa285a70719?.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 60 Minutes publicly releases the segment titled “Inside CECOT,” or an equivalently renamed story that is primarily about CECOT (the Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo in El Salvador), between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying release includes any report (television or official digital platforms) that substantially covers CECOT. Short clips, teasers, promotional material, or third-party leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be 60 Minutes (including CBS broadcasts and official 60 Minutes online platforms). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

On December 10, 2025, US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. More information can be found here: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States relinquishes its control over the seized oil tanker by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the United States must formally release the vessel from U.S. custody or operational control; a release will not count if the vessel has sunk or sustained fatal damage that renders it irreparable, though a vessel that remains repairable will qualify.

An announcement of intent to release the vessel will not suffice; U.S. control must actually be relinquished within this market’s timeframe to qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, redacted files, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, CIA, or any law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation intended to capture, detain, or take custody of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying operation’s objective must be to capture, imprison, detain, or otherwise take custody of Nicolas Maduro, as confirmed by either the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Direct U.S. personnel participation in an operation which succeeds in capturing Nicolas Maduro will also count, regardless of intention.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. operation to capture Maduro in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased evidence definitively confirming that Tucker Carlson was or is a CIA operative is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, ‘operative’ includes any direct involvement in assisting or providing information to the CIA.

Official confirmation from the Trump administration will qualify as definitive evidence.  

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Tucker Carlson confirmed CIA operative by December 31?

On December 22, a video surfaced depicting the 2019 suicide of Jeffrey Epstein in his prison cell, sourced from the Epstein files released on December 19. https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%208/EFTA00029924.mp4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is definitive evidence confirming the authenticity of the video by January 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video is not significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented, or doctored to make it appear as though it is footage of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the US Government.

Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which were not previously public, by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is taken into custody by the U.S. government at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Maduro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Maduro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Maduro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Maduro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Maduro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell provides live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sentient officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Sentient (https://www.sentient.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a constitutional amendment establishing term limits for members of the United States Congress is ratified by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Congressional term limits in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between November 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Venezuela by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Aztec launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed that Skye Valadez is the individual responsible for the shooting of Charlie Kirk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A “Yes” resolution requires one of the following:
- Formal arrest or charging of Skye Valadez by a recognized law enforcement agency in direct connection with the shooting
- Official statements by law enforcement naming him as the shooter or primary suspect
- An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming him as the shooter or primary suspect. 

Any of the above will independently qualify, conviction is not required to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Skye Valadez confirmed perp?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring.

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement.

If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. 

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rosie O'Donnell's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. 

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.


Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be officially announced and made available for transactions by Citigroup or a subsidiary under its direct control.

The token must be actively transferrable and/or tradable; announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Citigroup and its representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Citigroup launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Elon Musk from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Maduro out
- US x Venezuela military engagement

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Maduro+Parlay.pdf

Venezuela Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Solana, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?

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Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?

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Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will 60 Minutes' CECOT story released in 2025?

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