Name: Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?
Start: 2025-10-01T17:59:25.699867Z
End: 2025-10-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed U.S. senator votes "Yea" in favor of the next government funding bill during its first vote in the senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if no vote occurs on a new funding bill by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed senator's vote during the first roll call vote held over the next government funding bill in the US Senate will be used for this market's resolution, regardless of whether that bill is later signed into law or not.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Angus King

John Fetterman

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. senators who vote "Yea" in favor of the next government funding bill during its first vote in the senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No vote by November 30" if no vote occurs on a new funding bill by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The first roll-call vote held on the next government funding bill will be used for resolution purposes, regardless of whether that bill is later enacted into law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the US House and Senate pass the same government funding bill by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?

This market will resolve to “Senate” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve to “House” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

If no funding bill is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Partial or symbolic actions, such as introducing a bill without passage, will not qualify. The determination will be based strictly on the final passage of the funding bill that is ultimately signed into law.

If both chambers pass the qualifying bill on the same calendar day, the chamber whose roll call vote was completed earlier according to Congress.gov timestamps will be deemed to have moved first.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next government funding bill that becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2025, is a clean continuing resolution. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

A clean continuing resolution is defined as a funding measure that temporarily extends current government spending at the previous fiscal year’s levels for a specified period, without incorporating any additional policy provisions, earmarks, or modifications to agency operations.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act (H.R.5371) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next U.S. government funding law enacted includes a provision extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium/enhanced tax credits beyond December 31, 2025.

It will suffice if such a law continues the availability of ACA premium tax credits beyond December 31, 2025, in any form, including, but not limited to, shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or reduced eligibility.

This market will resolve to "No" if such a funding law is enacted without any provision extending the ACA premium tax credits beyond December 31, 2025, or if no funding law is enacted by December 31, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a constitutional amendment establishing term limits for members of the United States Congress is ratified by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Congressional term limits in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AOC announces senate run in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET to allow for a qualifying report to be made public.  

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however , a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump invoke War Powers again by October 31?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

Since September 19, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives has not convened for a legislative session. You can find more information here: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/speaker-johnson-keeps-the-house-away-as-he-fights-to-end-the-government-shutdown/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a non-pro forma floor session for the U.S. House of Representatives is officially scheduled by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purpose of this market, any non–pro forma session in which the House conducts legislative business, including debate, voting, or consideration of bills or resolutions, will qualify, whether it is convened by a call from Speaker Johnson or for any other reason.

Pro forma sessions will not qualify.

When a session is announced, the market will remain open until it is clearly established whether it constitutes a pro forma or non–pro forma session. If confirmed to be non–pro forma, the market may resolve immediately, regardless of whether or when the session ultimately occurs.

Note: If the House convenes for a non–pro forma session without prior public announcement, including under emergency or extraordinary procedures, this will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source will be official House communication channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, after the U.S. federal government shutdown that started on October 1, 2025, ends, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives passes any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official House voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from March 17, 2025, through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Angus King
$22,404 Vol.
No

John Fetterman
$53,107 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Rules

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Market Context

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

About

Related

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Angus King$22,404 Vol.Nocircle xmark

John Fetterman$53,107 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Rules

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

Market Context

Who will vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?

About

Related

Angus King
$22,404 Vol.
No

John Fetterman
$53,107 Vol.
No