Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$136,932,897 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Hassett 40%

Kevin Warsh 38%

Christopher Waller 10.9%

Rick Rieder 5.0%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett
$7,923,712 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$3,823,241 Vol.
38%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,180,821 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,346,170 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,356,721 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,065,585 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,688,252 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,090,243 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Stephen Miran
$2,660,401 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,604,911 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

David Zervos
$1,905,200 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Howard Lutnick
$1,239,017 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Larry Kudlow
$9,696,927 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$2,601,956 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$11,827,937 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,072,719 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,666,658 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,275,736 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,856,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,248,938 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,303,427 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,980,059 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$12,154,421 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$18,558,785 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$136,932,897

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$136,932,897 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett 40%

Kevin Warsh 38%

Christopher Waller 10.9%

Rick Rieder 5.0%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett

$7,923,712 Vol.

40%

Kevin Warsh

$3,823,241 Vol.

38%

Christopher Waller

$3,180,821 Vol.

11%

Rick Rieder

$2,346,170 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$3,356,721 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$3,065,585 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$2,688,252 Vol.

David Malpass

$2,090,243 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$2,660,401 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$1,604,911 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$1,905,200 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,239,017 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,696,927 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$2,601,956 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$11,827,937 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$7,800,319 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,072,719 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,666,658 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,275,736 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,856,074 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,248,938 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$19,303,427 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$4,980,059 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$12,154,421 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$18,558,785 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$136,932,897

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

20%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

10%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett
$7,923,712 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$3,823,241 Vol.
38%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,180,821 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,346,170 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,356,721 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,065,585 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,688,252 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,090,243 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Stephen Miran
$2,660,401 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,604,911 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

David Zervos
$1,905,200 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Howard Lutnick
$1,239,017 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Larry Kudlow
$9,696,927 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$2,601,956 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$11,827,937 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,072,719 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,666,658 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,275,736 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,856,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,248,938 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,303,427 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,980,059 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$12,154,421 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$18,558,785 Vol.
<1%

Market Context