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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Market icon
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Alexandre Pantoja 32%

Manel Kape 16%

Tatsuro Taira 10%

Tim Elliott 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Alexandre Pantoja 32%

Manel Kape 16%

Tatsuro Taira 10%

Tim Elliott 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Alexandre Pantoja

$1,445 Vol.

41%

Manel Kape

$0 Vol.

19%

Tatsuro Taira

$353 Vol.

10%

Tim Elliott

$228 Vol.

3%

Kyoji Horiguchi

$0 Vol.

1%

Brandon Moreno

$164 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Royval

$174 Vol.

<1%

Asu Almabayev

$180 Vol.

<1%

Amir Albazi

$226 Vol.

<1%

Steve Erceg

$173 Vol.

<1%

Joshua Van

$1,700 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus favors former champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40% implied probability to reclaim the UFC Flyweight title by year-end, buoyed by his four successful defenses prior to losing the belt via freak first-round injury TKO to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a win many view as circumstantial given Pantoja's grappling dominance and experience. Current champion Van sits at 29.5%, facing immediate risk in his first title defense against surging contender Tatsuro Taira (#3 ranked) on April 11 at UFC 327, after Taira's recent second-round TKO of Brandon Moreno. Manel Kape's knockout streak, including wins over Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval, elevates him to 19.5%, while Taira's 10% reflects his untested elite matchup despite an 18-1 record. Recent rankings underscore Van (#1), Pantoja (#2), Taira (#3), and Kape (#4) as the division's top threats.

Trader consensus favors former champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40% implied probability to reclaim the UFC Flyweight title by year-end, buoyed by his four successful defenses prior to losing the belt via freak first-round injury TKO to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a win many view as circumstantial given Pantoja's grappling dominance and experience. Current champion Van sits at 29.5%, facing immediate risk in his first title defense against surging contender Tatsuro Taira (#3 ranked) on April 11 at UFC 327, after Taira's recent second-round TKO of Brandon Moreno. Manel Kape's knockout streak, including wins over Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval, elevates him to 19.5%, while Taira's 10% reflects his untested elite matchup despite an 18-1 record. Recent rankings underscore Van (#1), Pantoja (#2), Taira (#3), and Kape (#4) as the division's top threats.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus favors former champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40% implied probability to reclaim the UFC Flyweight title by year-end, buoyed by his four successful defenses prior to losing the belt via freak first-round injury TKO to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a win many view as circumstantial given Pantoja's grappling dominance and experience. Current champion Van sits at 29.5%, facing immediate risk in his first title defense against surging contender Tatsuro Taira (#3 ranked) on April 11 at UFC 327, after Taira's recent second-round TKO of Brandon Moreno. Manel Kape's knockout streak, including wins over Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval, elevates him to 19.5%, while Taira's 10% reflects his untested elite matchup despite an 18-1 record. Recent rankings underscore Van (#1), Pantoja (#2), Taira (#3), and Kape (#4) as the division's top threats.

Trader consensus favors former champion Alexandre Pantoja at 40% implied probability to reclaim the UFC Flyweight title by year-end, buoyed by his four successful defenses prior to losing the belt via freak first-round injury TKO to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a win many view as circumstantial given Pantoja's grappling dominance and experience. Current champion Van sits at 29.5%, facing immediate risk in his first title defense against surging contender Tatsuro Taira (#3 ranked) on April 11 at UFC 327, after Taira's recent second-round TKO of Brandon Moreno. Manel Kape's knockout streak, including wins over Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval, elevates him to 19.5%, while Taira's 10% reflects his untested elite matchup despite an 18-1 record. Recent rankings underscore Van (#1), Pantoja (#2), Taira (#3), and Kape (#4) as the division's top threats.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alexandre Pantoja" at 41%, followed by "Joshua Van" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Alexandre Pantoja" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joshua Van" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.