Name: What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Start: 2024-09-30T19:32:47.189105Z
End: 2024-10-01T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the content and themes of Trump's speech in Wisconsin.

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "million" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "million" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a very large number.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Million 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Iran" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Iran" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the middle eastern country.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Iran

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Israel" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Israel" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the middle eastern country.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Israel

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tip" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tip" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a small, extra payment for services rendered.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tips

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Walz" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Walz" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Tim Walz.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Walz

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Trans

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Helene" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Helene" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the recent hurricane. 

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Helene

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "debate" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "debate" is part of the compound word and references a public discussion between competing political candidates.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Debate

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "mentally impaired" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Mentally Impaired

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "AI" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to intelligence exhibited by machines.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "World War 3" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

World War 3

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Disabled" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "disabled" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to having a physical or mental condition limiting abilities.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Disabled

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax queen" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tax Queen

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tampon

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Zelensky" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Zelensky" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Zelensky

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 7 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian nation officially named the People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

China 7+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled to give a speech on October 1 in Waunakee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-waunakee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Crypto/Bitcoin

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech? 

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 22, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Knucklehead" or "Numbskull" or "Numskull" in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Mexico by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Mexican imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Mexican goods.

Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Mexico will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Mexican provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.

Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the WI-03 House seat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Canada by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Canadian imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Canadian goods.

Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Canadian provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.

Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Border 20+ times
$43,456 Vol.
No

Border 30+ times
$22,115 Vol.
No

Million 10+ times
$17,311 Vol.
Yes

China 7+ times
$8,046 Vol.
Yes

Tips
$9,007 Vol.
Yes

Trans
$35,454 Vol.
Yes

Mentally Impaired
$5,923 Vol.
No

Disabled
$1,317 Vol.
No

AI
$4,694 Vol.
No

Tax Queen
$7,364 Vol.
Yes

Zelensky
$7,798 Vol.
Yes

Helene
$12,156 Vol.
Yes

Israel
$4,357 Vol.
Yes

World War 3
$8,744 Vol.
Yes

Iran
$7,449 Vol.
Yes

Walz
$5,644 Vol.
No

Debate
$190,879 Vol.
No

Tampon
$19,364 Vol.
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$31,279 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Border 20+ times$43,456 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border 30+ times$22,115 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Million 10+ times$17,311 Vol.Yescircle check

China 7+ times$8,046 Vol.Yescircle check

Tips$9,007 Vol.Yescircle check

Trans$35,454 Vol.Yescircle check

Mentally Impaired$5,923 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Disabled$1,317 Vol.Nocircle xmark

AI$4,694 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tax Queen$7,364 Vol.Yescircle check

Zelensky$7,798 Vol.Yescircle check

Helene$12,156 Vol.Yescircle check

Israel$4,357 Vol.Yescircle check

World War 3$8,744 Vol.Yescircle check

Iran$7,449 Vol.Yescircle check

Walz$5,644 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Debate$190,879 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tampon$19,364 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Crypto/Bitcoin$31,279 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

About

Related

Border 20+ times
$43,456 Vol.
No

Border 30+ times
$22,115 Vol.
No

Million 10+ times
$17,311 Vol.
Yes

China 7+ times
$8,046 Vol.
Yes

Tips
$9,007 Vol.
Yes

Trans
$35,454 Vol.
Yes

Mentally Impaired
$5,923 Vol.
No

Disabled
$1,317 Vol.
No

AI
$4,694 Vol.
No

Tax Queen
$7,364 Vol.
Yes

Zelensky
$7,798 Vol.
Yes

Helene
$12,156 Vol.
Yes

Israel
$4,357 Vol.
Yes

World War 3
$8,744 Vol.
Yes

Iran
$7,449 Vol.
Yes

Walz
$5,644 Vol.
No

Debate
$190,879 Vol.
No

Tampon
$19,364 Vol.
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$31,279 Vol.
No