Name: What will Trump say during California rally?
Start: 2024-10-09T22:36:54.060815Z
End: 2024-10-12T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over what Donald J. Trump will say during his rally in Coachella, California scheduled for October 12, 2024.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tax 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Kamala" 35 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US vice president Kamala Harris.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Kamala 35+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in East Asia officially named the People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

China 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "god" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "god" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a superhuman being or spirit worshiped as having power over nature or human fortunes; a deity.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

God 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "hurricane" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hurricane" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a storm with a violent wind, in particular a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Hurricane 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "too big to rig" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Too Big To Rig 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "green new scam" 2 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Green New Scam 2+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Sleepy Joe" or "Crooked Joe" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "unrealized" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "unrealized" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to profits on investments not yet sold or cashed out.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Unrealized 

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Alaska" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Alaska" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the US state.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Alaska

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Trans

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Elon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Elon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to billionaire CEO of SpaceX Elon Musk.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Elon

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "drill baby drill" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Drill Baby Drill

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "missile defense shield" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Missile Defense Shield

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Barack Hussein Obama" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Barack Hussein Obama

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says or "Reagan" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Reagan" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to 40th US President Ronald Reagan.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Reagan

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 12 in Coachella, California (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-coachella-california).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 12, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tampon

What will Trump say during California rally?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

Justin Bieber is scheduled to perform as the main act at Coachella 2026 on April 11 and April 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber officially announces his withdrawal from, or it is confirmed that he will not be performing at the 2026 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, by April 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Justin Bieber or Coachella (see: https://www.coachella.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Washington Commanders, or the ownership/development entity responsible for the team’s planned new stadium in Washington, D.C., officially announce and agree that the stadium will be named after Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying announcement must:
- Be made publicly and on the record by the Commanders organization or by the entity that owns or controls the new stadium (e.g., via press release, official statement, or filing).
- Clearly state that the new stadium will bear Trump’s name (for example, “Trump Stadium” or “Donald J. Trump Field”).
- Reflect a finalized agreement or naming-rights deal, not a proposal, negotiation, or expression of intent.

If any other official naming-rights deal is announced for the new stadium prior to June 30, 2026 — including a corporate sponsorship or another individual’s name — this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution sources will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the market cap of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) as of market close on December 31, 2025.

The market capitalization of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) will be determined by checking Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT at the time of market close for December 31, 2025 (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ).

If the market capitalization falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) changes its name or is merged into another entity before this market’s check time, this market will resolve based on the market capitalization of the successor entity.

The resolution source for this market will be Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ). If this resolution source is not available at this market’s check time, this market will remain open until it becomes available again and resolve based on the figure reported at that time. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen to resolve this market.

Will $DJT's market cap be between 4.5b and 5b

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Fool" this week? (December 15 - 21)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of sexual misconduct between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump engaged in sexual misconduct, or clearly describe behavior that meets that description. Sexual misconduct includes, but is not limited to, sexual harassment, sexual assault, unwanted advances, infidelity, affairs, or pedophilia. Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made by Maxwell and made public within the specified date range.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting

What will Trump say during California rally?

Border 20+ times
$61,592 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$52,037 Vol.
No

Tax 30+ times
$47,751 Vol.
No

Kamala 35+ times
$24,922 Vol.
No

China 10+ times
$21,187 Vol.
No

God 10+ times
$24,591 Vol.
No

Hurricane 3+ times
$19,910 Vol.
No

Too Big To Rig 3+ times
$19,617 Vol.
Yes

Green New Scam 2+ times
$35,738 Vol.
No

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 3+ times
$11,411 Vol.
No

Unrealized
$11,697 Vol.
No

Alaska
$7,032 Vol.
No

Trans
$66,028 Vol.
Yes

Elon
$14,683 Vol.
Yes

Drill Baby Drill
$17,186 Vol.
Yes

Missile Defense Shield
$38,651 Vol.
Yes

Barack Hussein Obama
$21,617 Vol.
Yes

Reagan
$28,675 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$210,867 Vol.
No

Tampon
$26,168 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during California rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during California rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during California rally?

About

Related

What will Trump say during California rally?

Border 20+ times$61,592 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 30+ times$52,037 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tax 30+ times$47,751 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kamala 35+ times$24,922 Vol.Nocircle xmark

China 10+ times$21,187 Vol.Nocircle xmark

God 10+ times$24,591 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hurricane 3+ times$19,910 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Too Big To Rig 3+ times$19,617 Vol.Yescircle check

Green New Scam 2+ times$35,738 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 3+ times$11,411 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Unrealized $11,697 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alaska$7,032 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trans$66,028 Vol.Yescircle check

Elon$14,683 Vol.Yescircle check

Drill Baby Drill$17,186 Vol.Yescircle check

Missile Defense Shield$38,651 Vol.Yescircle check

Barack Hussein Obama$21,617 Vol.Yescircle check

Reagan$28,675 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$210,867 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tampon$26,168 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during California rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during California rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during California rally?

About

Related

Border 20+ times
$61,592 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$52,037 Vol.
No

Tax 30+ times
$47,751 Vol.
No

Kamala 35+ times
$24,922 Vol.
No

China 10+ times
$21,187 Vol.
No

God 10+ times
$24,591 Vol.
No

Hurricane 3+ times
$19,910 Vol.
No

Too Big To Rig 3+ times
$19,617 Vol.
Yes

Green New Scam 2+ times
$35,738 Vol.
No

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 3+ times
$11,411 Vol.
No

Unrealized
$11,697 Vol.
No

Alaska
$7,032 Vol.
No

Trans
$66,028 Vol.
Yes

Elon
$14,683 Vol.
Yes

Drill Baby Drill
$17,186 Vol.
Yes

Missile Defense Shield
$38,651 Vol.
Yes

Barack Hussein Obama
$21,617 Vol.
Yes

Reagan
$28,675 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$210,867 Vol.
No

Tampon
$26,168 Vol.
No