Name: What will KJP say during White House press briefing?
Start: 2024-12-10T16:33:22.924575Z
End: 2024-12-10T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over what Karine Jean-Pierre will say at the White House Press Briefing scheduled for December 10, 2024.

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Syria" 3 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Syria" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in the Middle East.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Syria 3+ times

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "president" 15 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "president" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the leader of the executive branch of government.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

President 15+ times

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "president" 30 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "president" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the leader of the executive branch of government.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

President 30+ times

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "UnitedHealthcare" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "UnitedHealthcare" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the health insurance company.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

UnitedHealthcare

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Trump" 5 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US president elect Donald Trump or his family.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Trump 5+ times

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "border" 5 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between countries.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Border 5+ times

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Ukraine" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Ukraine" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in Eastern Europe.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Ukraine

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Assad" or "al-Assad" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Assad" or "al-Assad" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the former president of Syria Bashar al-Assad or his family.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Assad

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Luigi" or "Mangione" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Luigi" or "Mangione" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the suspect in the recent shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Luigi Mangione

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Putin" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Putin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to president of Russia Vladimir Putin.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Putin

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "peaceful transfer of power" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Peaceful Transfer of Power

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "democracy" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "democracy" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Democracy

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "pardon" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "pardon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the release of an offender from the legal consequences of an offence or conviction, and often implicitly from blame.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Pardon

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "Kamala" during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US vice president Kamala Harris.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

Kamala

Karine Jean-Pierre is currently scheduled to give press briefing on December 10 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to the opening statement as well as any following Q&A session. You can watch this briefing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-suJBz351c

This market will resolve to "Yes" if KJP says "president" 45 or more times during the White House press briefing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "president" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the leader of the executive branch of government.

If no such press briefing happens by December 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.

President 45+ times

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

Kamala Harris is scheduled to appear on the December 17 broadcast of Jimmy Kimmel Live!: https://www.detpress.com/abc/pressrelease/update-michelle-obama-will-arnett-kamala-harris-macaulay-culkin-and-more-guests-on-abcs-jimmy-kimmel-live-dec-15-19/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Kamala Harris is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Kamala Harris or ABC, or otherwise is not released by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Will Kamala Harris say "Trump" on Jimmy Kimmel Live?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between December 16, 2025, and the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro physically visits the White House complex in Washington, D.C., for any reason by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The visit must take place on White House grounds. Engagements held elsewhere in Washington, D.C., at other U.S. government facilities, or via virtual platforms do not qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro visit the White House in 2025?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between July 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) announces that he will resign from his position as United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), or otherwise ceases to be HHS Secretary for any length of time, between September 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by RFK Jr. or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chelsea Clinton announces she will run for Congress, either the House or the Senate, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Chelsea Clinton or her representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.


Will Chelsea Clinton announce run for congress by December 31?

Donald Trump is set to make an address on December 17, 2025 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115730644486071082).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled address on December 17, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hillary Clinton announces that she is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election between May 5, 2025, 11:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Clinton must definitively state her intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Hillary Clinton (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Perry and Trudeau have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry and/or Justin Trudeau or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell provides live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Jong Un meets with Sanae Takaichi by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Kim Jong Un and Sanae Takaichi are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Kim Jong Un meet with Sanae Takaichi by December 31?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about JD Vance's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 21, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff announce their intention to divorce between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the Rocky Mount Events Center on December 19, 2025 (https://www.wral.com/news/local/president-trump-speak-rocky-mount-friday-december-2025/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at Rocky Mount on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Mexico" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

If Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un visits the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Kim Jong Un enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or North Korea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Kash Patel is engaged to be married by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Kash Patel has married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Kash Patel or one of his representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kash Patel engaged in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

duplicate Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former United States Vice President Kamala Harris announces that she is running for Governor of California in the 2026 midterm election, between June 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stacey Plaskett announces she is resigning as the Delegate to the U.S House of Representatives from the U.S. Virgin Islands or otherwise ceases to be the Delegate to the U.S House of Representatives from the U.S. Virgin Islands for any length of time between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Stacey Plaskett announces she is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Stacey Plaskett or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Stacey Plaskett out as Virgin Islands delegate before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

President 15+ times
$21,282 Vol.
Yes

President 30+ times
$11,796 Vol.
Yes

President 45+ times
$26,136 Vol.
No

Trump 5+ times
$2,381 Vol.
No

Border 5+ times
$2,122 Vol.
No

Syria 3+ times
$2,895 Vol.
No

Assad
$3,219 Vol.
No

UnitedHealthcare
$873 Vol.
No

Luigi Mangione
$6,434 Vol.
No

Peaceful Transfer of Power
$1,608 Vol.
No

Democracy
$1,652 Vol.
Yes

Pardon
$10,046 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$12,770 Vol.
No

Kamala
$2,722 Vol.
No

Putin
$2,183 Vol.
No

Ukraine
$450 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

Rules

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

Market Context

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

About

Related

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

President 15+ times$21,282 Vol.Yescircle check

President 30+ times$11,796 Vol.Yescircle check

President 45+ times$26,136 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trump 5+ times$2,381 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border 5+ times$2,122 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Syria 3+ times$2,895 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Assad$3,219 Vol.Nocircle xmark

UnitedHealthcare$873 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Luigi Mangione$6,434 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Peaceful Transfer of Power$1,608 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Democracy$1,652 Vol.Yescircle check

Pardon$10,046 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$12,770 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kamala$2,722 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Putin$2,183 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ukraine$450 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

Rules

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

Market Context

What will KJP say during White House press briefing?

About

Related

President 15+ times
$21,282 Vol.
Yes

President 30+ times
$11,796 Vol.
Yes

President 45+ times
$26,136 Vol.
No

Trump 5+ times
$2,381 Vol.
No

Border 5+ times
$2,122 Vol.
No

Syria 3+ times
$2,895 Vol.
No

Assad
$3,219 Vol.
No

UnitedHealthcare
$873 Vol.
No

Luigi Mangione
$6,434 Vol.
No

Peaceful Transfer of Power
$1,608 Vol.
No

Democracy
$1,652 Vol.
Yes

Pardon
$10,046 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$12,770 Vol.
No

Kamala
$2,722 Vol.
No

Putin
$2,183 Vol.
No

Ukraine
$450 Vol.
Yes