Name: What products will Apple launch on September 9?
Start: 2025-09-05T12:41:34.535603Z
End: 2025-09-09T00:00:00Z

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Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces the above-specified product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new Apple Watch product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple Watch

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces an iPhone Air product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

iPhone Air

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces any new MacBook product other than a MacBook Air product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other MacBook

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new HomePod product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

HomePod

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces any new iPad product other than an iPad Air product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other iPad

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new AirTag product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Airtag

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new Studio Display product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Studio Display

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new iPhone SE product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

iPhone SE

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces any new iPhone product other than an iPhone SE or iPhone Air during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other iPhone

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new iMac product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

iMac

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new iPad Air product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

iPad Air

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new glasses or headset headware product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Glasses/Headset

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new AirPods product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Airpods

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new Apple TV product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple TV

Apple has scheduled a launch event for September 9, 2025, at 1 PM ET. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/apple-announces-iphone-launch-on-sept-9-.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new MacBook Air product during this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple products are released, each relevant market may resolve to "Yes".

This market may not resolve to "No" until the September 9 launch event is concluded.

If this event does not occur by September 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official feed of the event and information from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MacBook Air

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line in 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple. 

Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming that the US government orchestrated or was directly involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be publicly released information from the U.S. government.


Was 9/11 an inside job?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces a partnership with either OpenAI or Anthropic to use their AI models (such as ChatGPT or Claude) for enhancing or powering Siri on Apple devices by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The partnership must directly address Siri or voice assistant integration. General AI partnerships unrelated to Siri or non-specific mentions will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X relaunches Vine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Relaunching Vine" is defined as launching a platform and/or feature that performs similar functions to Vine, and is branded as a "relaunch of Vine" by Elon Musk or X itself. Note - the relaunch must be live and broadly accessible to the public before the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be the Vine platform, as well as official information from Elon Musk and X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X relaunches Vine in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Air Force One aircraft is put into official service by the US Air Force between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Air Force One" refers to any aircraft built to replace one or both of the VC-25s presently used as the primary presidential aircrafts.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

New Air Force One in 2025?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Corey Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Apple Watch
$7,519 Vol.
Yes

iPhone Air
$13,894 Vol.
Yes

Other MacBook
$841 Vol.
No

HomePod
$12,564 Vol.
No

Other iPad
$1,270 Vol.
No

Airtag
$15,008 Vol.
No

Studio Display
$1,161 Vol.
No

iPhone SE
$8,648 Vol.
No

Other iPhone
$5,678 Vol.
Yes

iMac
$3,186 Vol.
No

iPad Air
$3,987 Vol.
No

Glasses/Headset
$3,875 Vol.
No

Airpods
$7,109 Vol.
Yes

Apple TV
$11,354 Vol.
No

MacBook Air
$3,978 Vol.
No

Market Context

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Rules

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Market Context

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

About

Related

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Apple Watch$7,519 Vol.Yescircle check

iPhone Air$13,894 Vol.Yescircle check

Other MacBook$841 Vol.Nocircle xmark

HomePod$12,564 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other iPad$1,270 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Airtag$15,008 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Studio Display$1,161 Vol.Nocircle xmark

iPhone SE$8,648 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other iPhone$5,678 Vol.Yescircle check

iMac$3,186 Vol.Nocircle xmark

iPad Air$3,987 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Glasses/Headset$3,875 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Airpods$7,109 Vol.Yescircle check

Apple TV$11,354 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MacBook Air$3,978 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Rules

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

Market Context

What products will Apple launch on September 9?

About

Related

Apple Watch
$7,519 Vol.
Yes

iPhone Air
$13,894 Vol.
Yes

Other MacBook
$841 Vol.
No

HomePod
$12,564 Vol.
No

Other iPad
$1,270 Vol.
No

Airtag
$15,008 Vol.
No

Studio Display
$1,161 Vol.
No

iPhone SE
$8,648 Vol.
No

Other iPhone
$5,678 Vol.
Yes

iMac
$3,186 Vol.
No

iPad Air
$3,987 Vol.
No

Glasses/Headset
$3,875 Vol.
No

Airpods
$7,109 Vol.
Yes

Apple TV
$11,354 Vol.
No

MacBook Air
$3,978 Vol.
No