Name: What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in November 2025?
Start: 2025-10-30T19:14:52.616375Z
End: 2025-12-01T04:59:59.999Z

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What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in November 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between November 25 and the final trading day of November 2025, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.

↑ $190

↑ $210

↑ $200

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during November 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.

↑ $288

↑ $268

↑ $252

↑ $236

↑ $224

↑ $216

↑ $208

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during November 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.

↓ $200

↓ $192

↓ $184

↓ $172

↓ $160

↓ $144

↓ $124

Nvidia Hit Price Monthly

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in December 2025?

What price will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit before 2026?

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit before 2026?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Microstrategy's mNAV is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be based on StrategyTracker's "NAV Premium & Performance" chart available at https://strategytracker.com/mstr/, with "1M" and "Diluted Shares" selected.

NAV data for any given date will be considered finalized once the data point for the following calendar day is published on the chart.

This market will resolve based on the specified StrategyTracker chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Microstrategy's mNAV reach 2.50 by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XPL (XPL/USDT) between November 25, 2025, 16:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XPL/USDT “High” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XPL_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XPL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Plasma reach $0.24 by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Netflix (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$105 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?

As of market creation, NIKE is estimated to release earnings on December 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for NIKE's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.37 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NIKE reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.37 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If NIKE releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Aster (ASTER/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ASTER/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ASTER_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ASTER/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Aster dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Phantom is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

As of market creation, Adobe is estimated to release earnings on December 10, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Adobe’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.40 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adobe reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.40 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Adobe releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.

Note: If November 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in November 2025?

↑ $288
$477,114 Vol.
No

↑ $268
$171,054 Vol.
No

↑ $252
$31,499 Vol.
No

↑ $236
$140,428 Vol.
No

↑ $224
$32,184 Vol.
No

↑ $216
$57,796 Vol.
No

↑ $208
$2,561 Vol.
Yes

↑ $210
$3,896 Vol.
No

↑ $200
$3,392 Vol.
No

↑ $190
$3,421 Vol.
No

↓ $200
$10,582 Vol.
Yes

↓ $192
$21,136 Vol.
Yes

↓ $184
$11,121 Vol.
Yes

↓ $172
$55,323 Vol.
Yes

↓ $160
$39,866 Vol.
No

↓ $144
$117,580 Vol.
No

↓ $124
$217,379 Vol.
No

Market Context