Recent procedural delays in the DEA’s broader administrative proceeding explain the modest implied probabilities in the “Weed rescheduled by…?” market. While certain FDA-approved and state-licensed medical marijuana products moved to Schedule III in April 2026, the separate rulemaking covering remaining marijuana products remains unresolved. An 11-day hearing concluded in July, followed by post-hearing briefs, yet the chief administrative law judge stayed the case in late September after opponents cited a September GAO report highlighting gaps in DEA and FDA scheduling policies. The government’s response is due October 13. Any final shift would still require the judge’s recommendation, DEA Administrator review, possible exceptions, and potential litigation, extending the timeline beyond near-term resolution dates.