Trader consensus favors Arsenal at 26.5% implied probability to win the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, buoyed by their perfect league phase record and 3-1 aggregate round-of-16 victory over Bayer Leverkusen, positioning them favorably against Sporting CP in the quarters with a home second leg. Bayern Munich trails closely at 21.5% following a 10-2 thrashing of Atalanta, though their blockbuster quarter-final against Real Madrid—who stunned Manchester City 5-1 aggregate—adds uncertainty. Barcelona (16.5%) and PSG (12.5%) impressed with 8-3 and 8-2 aggregate wins, but face intra-Spanish derby tension versus Atletico Madrid and a rematch clash with Liverpool, respectively, keeping the race tight amid balanced knockout ties and no clear path to the Budapest final on May 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArsenal 27%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
$221,506,482 Vol.
$221,506,482 Vol.
Arsenal
27%
Bayern Munich
22%
Barcelona
17%
PSG
13%
Real Madrid
11%
Liverpool
8%
Atletico Madrid
3%
Sporting
1%
Club Brugge
<1%
Arsenal 27%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
$221,506,482 Vol.
$221,506,482 Vol.
Arsenal
27%
Bayern Munich
22%
Barcelona
17%
PSG
13%
Real Madrid
11%
Liverpool
8%
Atletico Madrid
3%
Sporting
1%
Club Brugge
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2025, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Arsenal at 26.5% implied probability to win the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, buoyed by their perfect league phase record and 3-1 aggregate round-of-16 victory over Bayer Leverkusen, positioning them favorably against Sporting CP in the quarters with a home second leg. Bayern Munich trails closely at 21.5% following a 10-2 thrashing of Atalanta, though their blockbuster quarter-final against Real Madrid—who stunned Manchester City 5-1 aggregate—adds uncertainty. Barcelona (16.5%) and PSG (12.5%) impressed with 8-3 and 8-2 aggregate wins, but face intra-Spanish derby tension versus Atletico Madrid and a rematch clash with Liverpool, respectively, keeping the race tight amid balanced knockout ties and no clear path to the Budapest final on May 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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