Name: Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?
Start: 2024-07-29T22:45:09.178239Z
End: 2024-08-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkey officially announces that it has suspended diplomatic relations with Israel by 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Turkish government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Turkish soil or any Turkish embassy or consulate between September 9, 3 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Turkey's ground territory or any official Turkish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Turkish soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Turkish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Israel between September 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Israeli citizens or entities which do not directly target the Israeli state or members of the Israeli government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Israel within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Israel by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Israel (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Israel unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel is officially banned or suspended from participating in FIFA competitions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement of a qualifying ban or suspension within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of when it takes effect or whether it is later revoked. Temporary suspensions or exclusions that prevent Israel from participating in FIFA competitions will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel is officially banned from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of when it takes effect or whether it is later revoked.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular Turkish military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

Turkish military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory or entering the airspace will not qualify. 

Turkish military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.

High ranking Turkish service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Turkish forces in Gaza in 2025?

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.

An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?

Market Context

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?

Rules

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?

Market Context

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?

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