Name: Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
Start: 2024-11-06T16:19:12.775133Z
End: 2025-04-29T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on whether Donald Trump will issue pardons.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if creator of Silk Road, Ross William Ulbricht, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Ulbricht is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Ross Ulbricht

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean John Combs (Diddy), receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Combs is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Diddy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Sam Bankman-Fried is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Sam Bankman-Fried

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Hunter Biden is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Hunter Biden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jeffery Lamar Williams Jr., aka Young Thug, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Young Thug is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Young Thug

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Donald Trump is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Himself

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Steve Bannon is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Steve Bannon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Edward Snowden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Edward Snowden is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Edward Snowden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Julian Assange receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Julian Assange is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Julian Assange

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any protestor involved in the 2021, January 6 capitol riots receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump, specifically related to their actions on that date, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor involved in the 2021, January 6 capitol riots is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


January 6 protestor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Daniel Penny receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Daniel Penny is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Daniel Penny

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Roger Ver receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Roger Ver is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Roger Ver

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Elon Musk is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Elon Musk

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rudy Giuliani receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Rudy Giuliani is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Rudy Giuliani

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Roger Stone receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Roger Stone is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Roger Stone

This market will resolve to "Yes" if  Matt Gaetz receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether  Matt Gaetz is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


 Matt Gaetz

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Adams receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Eric Adams is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Eric Adams

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rod Blagojevich receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Rod Blagojevich is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rod Blagojevich

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bob Menendez receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Menendez is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Bob Menendez

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Changpeng Zhao receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Changpeng Zhao is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Allen Maldonado receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Joseph Allen Maldonado is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Joe Exotic "The Tiger King"

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Derek Chauvin receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Joseph Allen Maldonado is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Derek Chauvin

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Crypto Pardon Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

Donald Trump is scheduled to appear at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors on December 7, 2025 (https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/trump-play-starring-role-heading-big-weekend-kennedy-128062868).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "King" or "Queen" at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Laura Loomer to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Laura Loomer join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

Donald Trump is scheduled to host a cabinet meeting on December 2, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the named, scheduled event December 2, 2025 (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President and The First Lady participate in the National Christmas Tree Lighting" in Washington on December 4, 2025, 6:00PM ET (see https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/president-trump-to-light-national-christmas-tree-thursday-expect-these-road-closures/4023736/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President and The First Lady participate in the National Christmas Tree Lighting" on December 4, 2025, 6:00PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" at Christmas Tree Lighting on December 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Sam Bankman-Fried
$2,009,458 Vol.
No

Eric Adams
$993,621 Vol.
No

Steve Bannon
$805,284 Vol.
No

Roger Ver
$1,466,254 Vol.
No

Julian Assange
$564,823 Vol.
No

Himself
$1,087,167 Vol.
No

January 6 protestor
$756,779 Vol.
Yes

Ross Ulbricht
$6,087,387 Vol.
Yes

Diddy
$1,401,581 Vol.
No

Elon Musk
$568,855 Vol.
No

Hunter Biden
$1,312,596 Vol.
No

Young Thug
$115,127 Vol.
No

Edward Snowden
$1,889,164 Vol.
No

Matt Gaetz
$236,254 Vol.
No

Daniel Penny
$67,404 Vol.
No

Rudy Giuliani
$199,945 Vol.
No

Roger Stone
$32,880 Vol.
No

Bob Menendez
$66,747 Vol.
No

Rod Blagojevich
$270 Vol.
Yes

Joe Exotic "The Tiger King"
$19,793 Vol.
No

Derek Chauvin
$133,067 Vol.
No

CZ
$104,870 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Rules

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

About

Related

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Sam Bankman-Fried$2,009,458 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Eric Adams$993,621 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Steve Bannon$805,284 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Roger Ver$1,466,254 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Julian Assange$564,823 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Himself$1,087,167 Vol.Nocircle xmark

January 6 protestor$756,779 Vol.Yescircle check

Ross Ulbricht$6,087,387 Vol.Yescircle check

Diddy$1,401,581 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Elon Musk$568,855 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hunter Biden$1,312,596 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Young Thug$115,127 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Edward Snowden$1,889,164 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Matt Gaetz$236,254 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Daniel Penny$67,404 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rudy Giuliani$199,945 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Roger Stone$32,880 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Bob Menendez$66,747 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rod Blagojevich$270 Vol.Yescircle check

Joe Exotic "The Tiger King"$19,793 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Derek Chauvin$133,067 Vol.Nocircle xmark

CZ$104,870 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Rules

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

About

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