Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?

$66,003 Vol.

<1% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic military strike is carried out on the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open open spaces on around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$66,003
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Oct 2, 2024, 4:54 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$66,003 Vol.

Market icon

Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?

<1% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic military strike is carried out on the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open open spaces on around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$66,003
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Oct 2, 2024, 4:54 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.