Recent momentum in SPCX shares, driven by the major lockup expiration releasing over 900 million shares and an Argus Research upgrade to Buy, has positioned the >$130 close for the week of August 3 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86% probability. The stock hit a 52-week low near $104.83 on August 3 amid post-IPO selling pressure and elevated AI-related capex in Q2 earnings, but rebounded sharply to close August 6 near $114.92 before extending gains above $130 intraday. Traders appear to view the lockup overhang relief and institutional buying as outweighing valuation compression risks, though the range of lower-probability buckets reflects ongoing uncertainty around execution on Starlink and Starship amid broader market volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$130 100.0%
$110-$115 1.0%
$125-$130 1.0%
<$85 <1%
$2,494 Vol.
$2,494 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
<$85
No
$85-$90
No
$90-$95
No
$95-$100
No
$100-$105
No
$105-$110
No
$110-$115
No
$115-$120
No
$120-$125
No
$125-$130
No
>$130
Yes
>$130 100.0%
$110-$115 1.0%
$125-$130 1.0%
<$85 <1%
$2,494 Vol.
$2,494 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
<$85
$385 Vol.
No
$85-$90
$248 Vol.
No
$90-$95
$129 Vol.
No
$95-$100
$520 Vol.
No
$100-$105
$128 Vol.
No
$105-$110
$157 Vol.
No
$110-$115
$98 Vol.
No
$115-$120
$352 Vol.
No
$120-$125
$45 Vol.
No
$125-$130
$65 Vol.
No
>$130
$367 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.Recent momentum in SPCX shares, driven by the major lockup expiration releasing over 900 million shares and an Argus Research upgrade to Buy, has positioned the >$130 close for the week of August 3 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86% probability. The stock hit a 52-week low near $104.83 on August 3 amid post-IPO selling pressure and elevated AI-related capex in Q2 earnings, but rebounded sharply to close August 6 near $114.92 before extending gains above $130 intraday. Traders appear to view the lockup overhang relief and institutional buying as outweighing valuation compression risks, though the range of lower-probability buckets reflects ongoing uncertainty around execution on Starlink and Starship amid broader market volatility.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,494End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.Recent momentum in SPCX shares, driven by the major lockup expiration releasing over 900 million shares and an Argus Research upgrade to Buy, has positioned the >$130 close for the week of August 3 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86% probability. The stock hit a 52-week low near $104.83 on August 3 amid post-IPO selling pressure and elevated AI-related capex in Q2 earnings, but rebounded sharply to close August 6 near $114.92 before extending gains above $130 intraday. Traders appear to view the lockup overhang relief and institutional buying as outweighing valuation compression risks, though the range of lower-probability buckets reflects ongoing uncertainty around execution on Starlink and Starship amid broader market volatility.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Volume
$2,494End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent momentum in SPCX shares, driven by the major lockup expiration releasing over 900 million shares and an Argus Research upgrade to Buy, has positioned the >$130 close for the week of August 3 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86% probability. The stock hit a 52-week low near $104.83 on August 3 amid post-IPO selling pressure and elevated AI-related capex in Q2 earnings, but rebounded sharply to close August 6 near $114.92 before extending gains above $130 intraday. Traders appear to view the lockup overhang relief and institutional buying as outweighing valuation compression risks, though the range of lower-probability buckets reflects ongoing uncertainty around execution on Starlink and Starship amid broader market volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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