Name: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
Start: 2025-03-25T23:11:49.617225Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between March 25 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is under fire for firing three top Pentagon aides based on allegations of leaking, now believed to be fabricated, with claims of an illegal warrantless NSA wiretap surfacing. The White House has lost confidence in the investigation, fueling criticism of Hegseth's fitness for the role and sparking concerns over national security and internal conflicts within the administration.

Wiretap Backlash

Three top Pentagon officials -- long-time friends of Pete Hegseth -- were fired last month based on false allegations of leaking.

All 3 were in the non-interventionist camp regarding Iran and the Middle East broadly.

The WH is now concluding those accusations were fabricated: https://t.co/fvUbH3WQxF

NEW: The White House has lost confidence in a Pentagon leak investigation that Pete Hegseth used to justify firing three top aides last month, after advisers were told the aides had supposedly been outed by a warrantless NSA wiretap @guardian exclusive https://t.co/JYQtnVOMnY

Is Pete Hegseth, the DUI hire, finally going to get thrown under the bus? Article in comments. https://t.co/PRBTiAlqXU

Every warning about Pete Hegseth has come true. The man is utterly unfit for the job. Every day he remains in his position is a threat to our national security. https://t.co/Z2XmmbiIjm

Advisors were told that an illegal warrantless NSA wiretap was used to out three officials that Pete Hegseth fired last month. When the advisors freaked about the unconstitutionality of it all, Hegseth's team backtracked.

What a pickle. https://t.co/Sy84p9FSsm

I've never seen a cabinet official travel this way.  

Usually it's first class travel with private jets and limos. 

Pete Hegseth is a BADASS.  https://t.co/ZJHxRa9GWM

BREAKING:  Pete Hegseth is facing backlash after allegedly firing three top aides based on information from what may have been an illegal wiretap. 

His lawyer at first claimed the wiretap caught one aide with a photo of classified military plans, but later walked that back. https://t.co/XM6tbq6q5R

🚨 “The White House has lost confidence in a Pentagon leak investigation that Pete Hegseth used to justify firing three top aides last month, after advisers were told that the aides had supposedly been outed by an illegal warrantless NSA wiretap.” https://t.co/bkA1Uy1U6k

At the Pentagon, personality conflicts persist and inexperience reigns, fueling internal speculation about  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s long-term viability in President Trump’s Cabinet. https://t.co/5EZhPAq2wc

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed a new round of restrictions on news outlets that cover the Pentagon https://t.co/Hbx29m6TzQ

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has terminated the 'Women, Peace & Security' (WPS) program at the Department of Defense, labeling it as a divisive and distracting initiative. His decision has sparked significant controversy, with critics accusing him of undermining security efforts, while supporters praise the move as a rejection of 'woke' policies.

WPS Program Ends

This morning, I proudly ENDED the “Women, Peace &amp; Security” (WPS) program inside the @DeptofDefense.

WPS is yet another woke divisive/social justice/Biden initiative that overburdens our commanders and troops — distracting from our core task: WAR-FIGHTING.

WPS is a UNITED

The woke &amp; weak Biden Administration distorted &amp; weaponized the straight-forward &amp; security-focused WPS initiative launched in 2017. 

So—yes—we are ending the “woke divisive/social justice/Biden (WPS) initiative.” 

Biden ruined EVERYTHING, including “Women, Peace &amp; Security.” https://t.co/Aj0huxfXiS

HOLY SHT 🚨 Pete Hegseth gives everybody chills in the room as he talks about Donald J. Trump 🔥 

“That Commander has your back and that means something to the Men and Women of America and is why we are seeing a record surge of recruiting”

DONALD TRUMP SAVED AMERICA 🙏 https://t.co/yUfMiKMf1N

Thank you, Mr. President. https://t.co/54U7aw7sMo

Pete Hegseth has taken Why the Caged Bird Sings by Maya Angelou off of the library shelves, but left two copies of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf in the library.

Just consider that for a minute: midshipmen can now read the antisemitic manifesto of one of history’s most evil men but https://t.co/vNRNx1b4Ev

Senator Mark Kelly on Pete Hegseth: "I served in the United States Navy for 25 years...When you put somebody who is CLEARLY not up for this job...this is what you get!"

"Chaos...ridiculous mistakes...sharing of information..." https://t.co/tPyinVud8T

Every Republican on the House Armed Services Committee knows that Pete Hegseth’s use of Signal was unacceptable and dangerous.

Yet, almost every single one of them has refused to hold a hearing into Pete Hegseth’s dangerous abuse of power.

The next time House Republicans try to https://t.co/K6RDU2fBHb

John Bolton openly threatening Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should be grounds for an investigation.

I'm thinking FBI raid at 6 am kind of treatment. https://t.co/JguJgHecVS

BREAKING: Ivanka Trump suffers the consequences of her father's sexist agenda as MAGA Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth terminates her signature "Women, Peace and Security program" for being too "woke."

And it gets even more embarrassing...

"This morning, I proudly ENDED the https://t.co/FkkCOTYvuH

John Bolton says that Defense Sec Pete Hegseth should "resign for his own safety's sake."

Is that a threat? @FBI

https://t.co/xje2rvUvD6

Sgt. Dakota Meyers saved 36 US Marines in Afganistan in 2009. 

He left the USMC 15 years ago. 

Last week he reinlisted because he wants to be a part of Pete Hegseth’s military. 

Hear what he had to say.
 https://t.co/Jw68wo7ggK

Um.

Donald Trump was in office in 2017 and signed the WPS initiative.

Not Biden.

Pete Hegseth is an embarrassment.

🤦‍♀️ https://t.co/2VUOnR7qA6

CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY on his flight aboard Air Force One with President Trump to Michigan for his 100 days rally: “Pretty bouncy today, actually. Flew down with Pete Hegseth and Doctor Oz and a few other people, and he just had a great event at a military base. The crowd here is https://t.co/JMQKZb14Ds

The people love Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, which is probably why the press hates him.🔥🔥 https://t.co/eJ02fmI1Nu

🚨Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Selfridge Air National Guard base:

"All I ever wanted when I was in combat was to know that my Commander had my back. Donald J. Trump, has your back. That's why we're seeing a record surge in recruiting."
 https://t.co/f5oTRs7oag

🚨 BREAKING: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth just ended the United Nations' left-wing "Women, Peace &amp; Security" program at DoD.

This was a MAJOR woke program that was in our military, pushed by the UN. Hegseth: "Troops HATE it."

It's now DONE. DEI = DOA in the military! 🔥🇺🇸 https://t.co/tN1NMKVs39

While Donald Trump bends the knee to Vladimir Putin, I’m standing up for our nation’s security and the safety of our allies.

Today, I introduced an amendment that would prevent Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump from eliminating our military command responsible for opposing Putin and https://t.co/WYJxdnWeop

Pete Hegseth today announced he's "proudly" ending a Pentagon program intended to advance women's participation in peace-building and security.

The program was signed into law by Trump in 2017 with the support of Kristi Noem, Marco Rubio and Ivanka Trump.
https://t.co/HbuZaySmP8

House Rs are moving to thwart Democratic efforts to probe Secretary Pete Hegseth's controversial use of Signal, tucking language in a rule that blocks so-called “resolutions of inquiry” — just as Dems planned to force a vote on House Armed Services. 

https://t.co/YLOkj5niSM

The DOD refused to send someone to testify today because they can't pass an audit and they can't defend the Secretary's chaos and irresponsibility.

It's not surprising, but it is disappointing. They didn't want to be on the hook for Pete Hegseth's dangerous antics. https://t.co/lhndOileL7

Pete Hegseth fired his senior aides and blamed them for HIS reckless use of an insecure Signal group chat to share likely classified information.

Oversight Committee Democrats want to hear their side of the story.
https://t.co/dlgSumB0Xg

🚨 President Trump makes his support of Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary UNEQUIVOCALLY clear:

"I have so much confidence in him. The fake news is after him, REALLY after him. But he's a tough cookie. They don't know how tough he is!" https://t.co/pYsxt2bggn

In sitting down with The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, President Donald Trump said he spoke with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the Signal chat controversies, and expressed confidence he will turn it around. https://t.co/UI2bFUc6Jb

EXCLUSIVE: President Trump tells ABC News he hopes Pete Hegseth will be a "great" defense secretary despite Signal flap. 

Watch tonight at 8/7c on ABC.

https://t.co/wQFLTDiJlt https://t.co/X9tICUpGMB

As the president marks the 100th day of his second term, @TerryMoran sits down with Pres. Trump in an ABC News exclusive interview, asking him about economic anxieties amid sweeping tariffs, and if he still has confidence in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. https://t.co/a7XJwcFi6N https://t.co/x8aRXAC72L

President Trump expressed confidence in Pete Hegseth in an exclusive interview with ABC News, saying he hopes the former Fox News host will be a "great" defense secretary, amid a bevy of press reports calling Hegseth's leadership into question.

https://t.co/wQFLTDibvV

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is under fire for multiple controversies, including leaked personal data, a Russian email address, and a 'kafir' tattoo sparking cultural backlash. Critics, including politicians and military personnel, demand his resignation or firing over national security breaches and perceived incompetence.

Intense Criticism

Whiskey Pete Hegseth has a Russian burner phone which he uses to communicate in secret with someone. 👊🇺🇸🔥 https://t.co/PkSTiKHJjT

Pete Hegseth blew up a whole apartment building to get one missile engineer. This is public knowledge now, and the blowback won't be good. https://t.co/rKrbaJWqjM

FUN FACT:
There are currently 38 4-Star generals serving.
There are currently 141 3-star generals serving.
So many generals to choose from.

Pete Hegseth has zero stars.
He wasn't even a general.
He's a Fox News host.

FIRE HIS DRUNK ASS.
FIRE PETE HEGSETH.

Time to show fake news media how much we all support @PeteHegseth 

Fake News is trying to cancel Pete Hegseth. Drop a “❤️” below if you fully support Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth is tagged so he will se it 🔥 https://t.co/dwYkUEegtj

Why does Pete Hegseth have a Russian email address? https://t.co/Nqc3QzvRWX https://t.co/eIn6kfUhjW

🚨BREAKING: Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary, has a new tattoo written in Arabic declaring himself a ‘Kafir,’ which is an enemy of Islam

Islamists don’t know what’s coming…

Christian-nationalism is back. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/JBqYDhbN5C

Interesting article about how the Trump administration's security advisors' mobile numbers, emails, and passwords can be found in commercial databases and publicly available leaks.

My question is, why does Pete Hegseth have a Russian email address? https://t.co/gIYWEhty5n https://t.co/R8GUUDMnQc

I explain exactly why the Signal story transformed into an anti SecDef Pete Hegseth crusade. 

The attacks against Pete Hegseth reveal a deeper fault line within the GOP. The neocons who reluctantly voted for Pete are out for revenge. It's not going to work. 

Watch.

Subscribe https://t.co/xZWma8dcV1

“The DoD will be merit based and colorblind. You will be judged based on how good you are at your job. FULL STOP.” - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

BOOM https://t.co/GQ4DQ3xvJ0

BREAKING - Ilhan Omar is privately working to file articles of IMPEACHMENT against Pete Hegseth, Michael Waltz &amp; John Ratcliffe.

This is how you FIGHT!  

Expose them all. https://t.co/0Wl8ldZLRj

4 US soldiers died overseas today and Pete Hegseth didn’t even tell Trump about it before he met with reporters, causing him to look pretty bad yet again.

Trump has to be going senile for Hegseth to keep his job this long.

Himes: I know what was happening here. You just have to read Pete Hegseth’s typed text about ‘F-18s launching, accompanied by MQ-9s, weather good, Centcom says go.’ This is Pete Hegseth playing soldier. It’s just the testosterone rush he gets when he types ‘MQ-9s en route.’

This https://t.co/Kk4t9kC4cb

It was appropriate for Pete Hegseth to resign as Secretary of Defense. 

**scrolls news**

HE’S STILL THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE??????

2025: Chuck Schumer on Signal messages — Pete Hegseth should lose his job.

2021: Chuck Schumer on Afghanistan withdrawal that left 13 Americans dead — I’m not gonna get into pointing fingers. https://t.co/bGRHfAodPz

SecDef Pete Hegseth does a Trump impression from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam 😂😂

"When the president asked me to do this job, he told me two things up front, among many. First, he said, [Trump impression] 'Pete, you're gonna have to be tough as ...'" https://t.co/mOGqbYeDHQ

WSJ and NYT now directly targeting Pete Hegseth 

The op is so obvious https://t.co/DnUdVXonkW

Rep. Seth Moulton torches Hegseth’s failure:

“If a junior Guardsman did what Pete Hegseth did, they’d be fired, stripped of clearance, and probably prosecuted.”

But Hegseth? Still SecDef. Still lying. Still putting lives at risk.

No honor. No accountability. No excuse. https://t.co/K6W1ArAXll

🇺🇸 U.S. Defense Secretary gets “kafir” tattoo

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth is once again in the spotlight — this time for a new tattoo on his arm featuring the Arabic word كافر ("kafir" – meaning nonbeliever or infidel).

Media note that he got the tattoo after becoming Secretary https://t.co/UEdIDYOhbM

BREAKING: Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan demands that MAGA Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth "be removed from office" if he refuses to resign as SignalGate explodes into a full-blown historic scandal, says that it's "absolutely impeachable."

There's no putting out this raging fire https://t.co/dYUB76IzvR

🚨 BREAKING: The personal phone numbers, email addresses, and active passwords of top officials—including Pete Hegseth, Mike Waltz, and Tulsi Gabbard—have reportedly been discovered online.

If confirmed, this isn’t just a breach—it’s a national security meltdown.

Expect damage

BREAKING: The top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee is calling on Pete Hegseth to be FIRED. Calls are mounting to remove Pete from his post. Hegseth must go!  https://t.co/WGJ2K1pMCI

Why does Pete Hegseth have a mail . ru email address? 😏
(passwords redacted even though they're out publicly so Elon doesn't suspend us) https://t.co/rK7woMZ3mB

Senator Tammy Duckworth: “Pete Hegseth is a fucking liar.”

RETWEET if you agree! https://t.co/mfD4446AGH

JEFFRIES: “We're in the middle of a fight right now as it relates to Pete Hegseth. He needs to resign of be fired by Donald Trump. We’ve made that clear.”

 https://t.co/GSfZMDwKxm

U.S. military pilots are furious—lives were put at risk when Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon leaked flight plans for a live mission over Signal.

Pilots were in the air while targets and timing were being texted.

This wasn’t just a mistake. It was a failure of leadership.

MORE: https://t.co/2AgY6Vgycj

🚨 BREAKING: The D.C. Circuit just told Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth he can NOT enforce Trump's executive order medically barring transgenders from the military - POLITICO https://t.co/DPcuBzS7LP

New: Judge Boasberg orders defendants in the Signal lawsuit — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, DNI Tulsi Gabbard, SecState Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — to preserve all Signal communications between Mar 11 and Mar 15

All of Trump‘s top security advisors, including Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard and Mike Waltz, have had their mobile numbers, E-Mail and passwords placed in commercial databases &amp; publicly available leaks. 

While they scramble to take down info, everything has been documented. https://t.co/3TsG5IXlma

BREAKING 🚨 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is announcing the termination of $580,000,000.00 in DoD Contracts and Grants

What's your opinion on this? https://t.co/lWFzpSoVaV

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is under intense scrutiny due to allegations of sharing sensitive military information via personal Signal chats, prompting calls for his resignation from figures like Rep. Don Bacon and growing dissent within the Pentagon. Despite support from President Trump and his team, reports suggest the White House is already seeking a replacement amid escalating controversies and claims of dysfunction at the Pentagon.

Resignation Calls

🧵 THREAD:
The Pete Hegseth leak scandal just got way worse.
Here’s a timeline of what happened—and why it’s a major national security crisis. ⬇️

🚨 Secretary Pete Hegseth just spent 90 seconds absolutely FILLETING the fake news media

“What a big surprise! A few leakers get fired and a few hit pieces come out from the same media that peddled the Russia hoax!”

“This is what the media does. They take anonymous sources from https://t.co/6TJRQEDyna

I loved the Pete Hegseth pick initially. But now after seeing this unrelenting campaign to smear and destroy him, I love the pick even more. We all need to rally around him. This coordinated hit job cannot be allowed to succeed.

When they come after Pete Hegseth, just remember everything they DON'T want to talk about...

Recruiting is up.
Morale is up.
Standards are up.
Efficiency is up.
America's influence is up.
And most importantly, lethality is up.

What's down? Only the influence of neocons and

Time to get loud for @PeteHegseth 

If you support Pete Hegseth regardless of what the Fake News Media says, drop a “👍” down below

I tagged Pete so he will absolutely see it https://t.co/8OxsRD3ztJ

🚨 JUST IN: Karoline Leavitt confirms President Trump is STANDING BY Pete Hegseth, despite the fake news’ efforts to oust him 

“The President stands strongly behind Secretary Hegseth, who is doing a phenomenal job leading the Pentagon.”

GREAT! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/caPgrtiTXT

Pete Hegseth had a signal chat with his wife
and it’s the end of the world.. 

Meanwhile the democrats.... https://t.co/TEGYKbx0NS

There is a highly orchestrated campaign afoot to take down Pete Hegseth. Everyone needs to have his back and support him right now.

Remember this: Democrat desperation to get rid of a Trump pick is directly correlated to how effective they are. Best Sec Def we could ask for!

SecDef Pete Hegseth SLAMS the "Signal chat controversy" and confirms he's spoken to President Trump and they're "on the same page all the way":

"A few leakers get fired and suddenly a bunch of hit pieces come out from the same media that peddled the Russia hoax, won't give back https://t.co/29AAg6ehrE

If I had a nickel for every time we found out Pete Hegseth has been sending operational info in Signal group chats, I’d have two nickels now. 
 
Being the Secretary of Defense is serious business and it’s clear he’s not up to it. Hegseth needs to resign or be fired. https://t.co/upoeOWpwFe

BREAKNG: In a shocking moment, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claims that "the entire Pentagon" is working against Pete Hegseth. If that is the case, and not just more gaslighting, it means the Pentagon has no faith in him, and he should be replaced.
https://t.co/BBjJF8tCIN

🚨Pete Hegseth SHUTS DOWN the Fake News media targeting him: 

“Leakers get fired and hit pieces come out.. This is what they do. They take anonymous sources from former employees, and they try to ruin people’s reputations… not gonna work with me!”
 https://t.co/xSItlZ4M3L

🚨NEW: Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has called for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to resign, becoming the first GOP member of Congress to do so:

"He’s acting like he’s above the law — and that shows an amateur person” https://t.co/PxDcAnj8jh

President Trump has Pete Hegseth's back:

"Everybody's happy with him, we have the highest recruitment numbers we've had in 28 years. Just fake news."

"Sounds like disgruntled employees. He was put there to get rid of a lot of bad people. That's what he's doing. You don't always https://t.co/J4JyVVu5H8

Karoline Leavitt FORCEFULLY affirms President Trump's support for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

"This is what happens when the entire Pentagon is working against you, and working against the monumental change you are trying to implement."

🔥🔥 https://t.co/o7j2tYmMtu

NEW: Republican Congressman Don Bacon, a former Air Force general who now chairs the subcommittee on cyber issues, became the first sitting GOP lawmaker to suggest Trump should fire Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth:

“I’m not in the White House…but I find it unacceptable, and I https://t.co/CfjTmo3oDv

NBC News confirms: Pete Hegseth used his personal phone to send information about U.S. military operations in Yemen to a Signal chat including his wife, brother and personal lawyer, two sources with knowledge confirmed to NBC News. @MSNBC

WH Press Secretary claims that the “entire Pentagon” is working against Pete Hegseth. 🤡 https://t.co/dGeFbH30om

Just days after media reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discouraged President Trump from attacking Iran, multiple media stories have dropped claiming incompetence and worse on his part.

Meanwhile three top aides known for a more realist approach to foreign policy have https://t.co/Uj3pIyttB1

New: Rep. Don Bacon is the first GOP lawmaker to publicly suggest Pete Hegseth should be fired. 

"He’s acting like he’s above the law — and that shows an amateur person," Bacon said. https://t.co/sDQcGwSXRb

🚨 The Pentagon is in “total chaos” and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is unlikely to remain in his role, according to its former top spokesperson https://t.co/0S1ByGTpvQ

NPR reports that the White House has begun the process of searching for a new Secretary of Defense, following several weeks of controversies involving current Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his Pentagon. https://t.co/Dt4zF43JVe

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) announces that he will resign from his position as United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), or otherwise ceases to be HHS Secretary for any length of time, between September 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by RFK Jr. or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fetterman out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eyal Zamir announces that he will resign as Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of Eyal Zamir's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

 IDF Chief Eyal  Zamir out by December 31, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". 

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States withdraws all conventional combat forces from Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This market refers only to conventional U.S. military forces operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs), military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to "Yes," provided there are no conventional U.S. military forces actively operating in Syria.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that the United States announces all conventional combat forces have withdrawn from all Syrian territory, regardless of whether some Syrian territory remains under their control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government be a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by United States military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by U.S. ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

Market Context

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

Rules

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

Market Context

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

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