Name: # of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?
Start: 2025-05-07T12:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-05-07T12:00:00.000Z

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This market will resolve to according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 (Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2) has on Youtube as of May 7, 9:30 AM ET. 

If the video is removed in the first 24hrs, this market will resolve according  to the view count prior to its removal.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games YouTube channel, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.



This market will resolve to according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQRLujxTm3c) has on Youtube as of May 7, 9:30 AM ET. 

If the video is removed in the first 24hrs, this market will resolve according  to the view count prior to its removal.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games YouTube channel, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

<60m

60-70m

70-80m

80-90m

90-100m

100-110m

110-120m

120m+

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for the next GTA (GTA VI) is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games.

This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released before June 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States.

If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price.

This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc.

If GTA 6 is not released by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


GTA 6 launch postponed again?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”

Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?

Bad Bunny is scheduled to perform at halftime of Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026. Each Year, the official NFL YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL) posts a video of the halftime show shortly after the game.

This market will resolve according to the number of views the video posted by the NFL of the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show gets in the first 7 days after being posted.

This market will resolve based on the view count for the Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video posted by the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL). Only the view counts posted of the complete performance will count (e.g. the video titled “Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl Halftime Show” at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDorKy-13ak). View counts for other videos posted by the NFL on YouTube will not impact this market’s resolution.

If no video of the Bad Bunny Super Bowl LX halftime show is posted on YouTube by the NFL by February 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Not Posted”.

If the NFL posts multiple videos of Bad Bunny’s full halftime performance on YouTube, this market will resolve based on the view count for the posted video with the most views.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?

Bad Bunny is scheduled to perform at halftime of Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026. Each year, the official NFL YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL) posts a video of the complete halftime show shortly after the game.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the video posted by the NFL of the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show becomes the most viewed Super Bowl halftime show video on the NFL YouTube channel by March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the view counts for Super Bowl halftime show videos posted by the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL). Only the view counts for posted videos of complete Super Bowl halftime shows/performances will count (e.g. the video titled “Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl Halftime Show” at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDorKy-13ak). View counts for other videos posted by the NFL will not impact this market’s resolution.

The video posted by the NFL of the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show will be considered to have become the most viewed NFL super bowl halftime show video on the NFL YouTube channel if its total view count is higher for any period of time than any other qualifying NFL Super Bowl halftime show video. A tie in the number of views will not count.

If no video of the Bad Bunny Super Bowl LX halftime show is posted on YouTube by the NFL by March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the NFL posts multiple videos of Bad Bunny’s complete halftime performance on YouTube, the view count for any of the videos may count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month?

This market will resolve according to the number of viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports Super Bowl LX as having.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. A consensus of credible reporting on Nielsen's Persons 2+ statistic for Super Bowl LX may also be used. If Super Bowl LX takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the broadcast of the game within 10 calendar days, another credible resolution for Super Bowl viewership source may be chosen.

Will Super Bowl LX have between 128M and 132M viewers?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Marty Supreme" grosses $70,000,000 or more domestically from opening through January 31. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates from opening until January 31 (December 25 - January 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Total Gross in the Daily Box Office section for the specified timeframe, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series.

If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 

The Joe Rogan Experience podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the first released episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast between February 2, 2026 and February 8, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast is aired by February 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

JRE MMA Show episodes will not count for this market, only Joe Rogan Experience episodes.

The resolution source will be the released episode from (https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan).

Will "Elon" or "Musk" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 8)

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Gensyn's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Gensyn (https://x.com/gensynai) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

<60m
$354,308 Vol.
No

60-70m
$275,507 Vol.
Yes

70-80m
$215,159 Vol.
No

80-90m
$149,301 Vol.
No

90-100m
$114,358 Vol.
No

100-110m
$85,398 Vol.
No

110-120m
$78,399 Vol.
No

120m+
$130,660 Vol.
No

Market Context

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

Rules

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

Market Context

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

About

Related

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

<60m$354,308 Vol.No

60-70m$275,507 Vol.Yes

70-80m$215,159 Vol.No

80-90m$149,301 Vol.No

90-100m$114,358 Vol.No

100-110m$85,398 Vol.No

110-120m$78,399 Vol.No

120m+$130,660 Vol.No

Market Context

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

Rules

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

Market Context

# of views of GTA VI Trailer 2 on day 1?

About

Related

<60m
$354,308 Vol.
No

60-70m
$275,507 Vol.
Yes

70-80m
$215,159 Vol.
No

80-90m
$149,301 Vol.
No

90-100m
$114,358 Vol.
No

100-110m
$85,398 Vol.
No

110-120m
$78,399 Vol.
No

120m+
$130,660 Vol.
No