Name: # of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?
Start: 2024-01-10T21:51:47.18Z
End: 2024-01-16T00:00:00Z

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Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets fewer than 160 times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

<160

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets between 160-225 (inclusive) times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

160-225

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets between 226-300 (inclusive) times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

226-300

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets between 301-375 (inclusive) times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

301-375

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets between 376-450 (inclusive) times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

376-450

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets between 451-525 (inclusive) times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

451-525

Bulletin Board Update: 5:27 PM ET

If SocialBlade stops updating numbers correctly for the correct dates, as verified by checking X itself, a manual count for Tweets from Jan 10, ET to Jan 16, ET will be done instead on Jan 17, 12 AM ET (including whichever post types that SocialBlade accounts for).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the @elonmusk X/Twitter account posts/tweets more than 525 times between January 10 and 16, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Social Blade page for the Elon Musk X/Twitter account (https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk), specifically the chart for "Tweets Posted Weekly" once the number for Jan 10, 2024 - Jan 16, 2024 is finalized.

If Social Blade becomes permanently unavailable by the time this market is set to resolve, the @elonmusk X/Twitter account itself will be used as the resolution source.

>525

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk attends any official UFC match between August 15 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025. 

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Tesla.

The resolution source will be public statements from Tesla.

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Elon Musk from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 8, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 8 - 14)

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Moscow" this week? (December 1 - 7)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Proph3T mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MrBeast (@mrbeast) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be MrBeast's X account: https://x.com/mrbeast

For an example of what MrBeast's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeastpfpdec.png

Will MrBeast change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if DOGE or Elon Musk confirm that gold is missing from Fort Knox between March 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Only definitive statements which are based on audit or investigation of Fort Knox will count. 

If an audit by DOGE or Elon Musk confirms that there is no gold missing from Fort Knox, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.

Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

<160
$5,280 Vol.
No

160-225
$5,027 Vol.
No

226-300
$2,555 Vol.
No

301-375
$2,502 Vol.
Yes

376-450
$1,679 Vol.
No

451-525
$1,519 Vol.
No

>525
$2,789 Vol.
No

Market Context

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

Rules

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

Market Context

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

About

Related

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

<160$5,280 Vol.Nocircle xmark

160-225$5,027 Vol.Nocircle xmark

226-300$2,555 Vol.Nocircle xmark

301-375$2,502 Vol.Yescircle check

376-450$1,679 Vol.Nocircle xmark

451-525$1,519 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>525$2,789 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

Rules

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

Market Context

# of Elon Musk tweets between January 10-16?

About

Related

<160
$5,280 Vol.
No

160-225
$5,027 Vol.
No

226-300
$2,555 Vol.
No

301-375
$2,502 Vol.
Yes

376-450
$1,679 Vol.
No

451-525
$1,519 Vol.
No

>525
$2,789 Vol.
No