Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for NVIDIA (NVDA) closing the week of March 16 between $170-$175, tightly anchored to the stock's current consolidation around $172 following its Q4 earnings beat on surging AI data center demand. Subdued implied volatility from options markets—near 40%, down from recent peaks—reflects digested guidance and steady Blackwell ramp-up expectations, bolstered by resilient tech sector rotation amid cooling inflation data. This positioning holds barring catalysts like a hotter-than-expected March 12 CPI print delaying Fed cuts, broader Nasdaq selloff from FOMC March 19 signals, or renewed US-China export curbs sparking a drop below $165.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$170-$175 100.0%
<$155 <1%
$155-$160 <1%
$160-$165 <1%
$1,199 Vol.
$1,199 Vol.
<$155
No
$155-$160
No
$160-$165
No
$165-$170
No
$170-$175
Yes
$175-$180
No
$180-$185
No
$185-$190
No
$190-$195
No
$195-$200
No
>$200
No
$170-$175 100.0%
<$155 <1%
$155-$160 <1%
$160-$165 <1%
$1,199 Vol.
$1,199 Vol.
<$155
No
$155-$160
No
$160-$165
No
$165-$170
No
$170-$175
Yes
$175-$180
No
$180-$185
No
$185-$190
No
$190-$195
No
$195-$200
No
>$200
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for NVIDIA (NVDA) closing the week of March 16 between $170-$175, tightly anchored to the stock's current consolidation around $172 following its Q4 earnings beat on surging AI data center demand. Subdued implied volatility from options markets—near 40%, down from recent peaks—reflects digested guidance and steady Blackwell ramp-up expectations, bolstered by resilient tech sector rotation amid cooling inflation data. This positioning holds barring catalysts like a hotter-than-expected March 12 CPI print delaying Fed cuts, broader Nasdaq selloff from FOMC March 19 signals, or renewed US-China export curbs sparking a drop below $165.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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