Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices the 2.7M-2.9M range for TSA checkpoint passenger screenings on March 22 at near certainty, driven by consistent recent daily volumes hovering around 2.8 million on weekdays, aligning with mid-March seasonal norms for spring break travel without major holidays. Fridays typically see elevated air traffic from weekend getaways, matching historical averages of 2.75-2.85 million for similar dates, bolstered by stable airline schedules and mild weather forecasts nationwide. This commanding position reflects low volatility in Transportation Security Administration data trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected East Coast snowstorms grounding flights, FAA ground stops, or sudden airline cancellations, potentially dropping volumes below 2.7 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2.7M-2.9M 100.0%
<2.5M <1%
2.5M-2.7M <1%
2.9M-3.1M <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
<2.5M
No
2.5M-2.7M
No
2.7M-2.9M
Yes
2.9M-3.1M
No
3.1M-3.3M
No
>3.3M
No
2.7M-2.9M 100.0%
<2.5M <1%
2.5M-2.7M <1%
2.9M-3.1M <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
<2.5M
No
2.5M-2.7M
No
2.7M-2.9M
Yes
2.9M-3.1M
No
3.1M-3.3M
No
>3.3M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:31 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices the 2.7M-2.9M range for TSA checkpoint passenger screenings on March 22 at near certainty, driven by consistent recent daily volumes hovering around 2.8 million on weekdays, aligning with mid-March seasonal norms for spring break travel without major holidays. Fridays typically see elevated air traffic from weekend getaways, matching historical averages of 2.75-2.85 million for similar dates, bolstered by stable airline schedules and mild weather forecasts nationwide. This commanding position reflects low volatility in Transportation Security Administration data trends. Realistic challenges include unexpected East Coast snowstorms grounding flights, FAA ground stops, or sudden airline cancellations, potentially dropping volumes below 2.7 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions