Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint screenings on April 1 at 100% implied probability, driven by the official TSA report confirming 2,360,739 passengers screened—well below the threshold and consistent with subdued spring break volumes. Recent TSA staffing shortages from a federal funding lapse in late March caused widespread sickouts (up to 50% at major airports like Houston), extended wait times exceeding four hours, and checkpoint consolidations, deterring some travel and keeping daily throughput between 2.1 million and 2.8 million through late March into early April. Retroactive pay resumption eased disruptions, but April 1's midweek figure remained low. Over 3.2 million now faces insurmountable barriers barring a rare data correction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$12,193 Vol.
$12,193 Vol.
<2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
>3.2M
No
<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$12,193 Vol.
$12,193 Vol.
<2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
>3.2M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint screenings on April 1 at 100% implied probability, driven by the official TSA report confirming 2,360,739 passengers screened—well below the threshold and consistent with subdued spring break volumes. Recent TSA staffing shortages from a federal funding lapse in late March caused widespread sickouts (up to 50% at major airports like Houston), extended wait times exceeding four hours, and checkpoint consolidations, deterring some travel and keeping daily throughput between 2.1 million and 2.8 million through late March into early April. Retroactive pay resumption eased disruptions, but April 1's midweek figure remained low. Over 3.2 million now faces insurmountable barriers barring a rare data correction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions