Microsoft (MSFT) shares have locked in a 100% implied probability of closing the week of March 16 between $380 and $390, driven by the stock's current trading level firmly entrenched in that range amid low intraday volatility and steady Nasdaq momentum. Trader consensus reflects robust fundamentals, including blockbuster Azure cloud revenue growth from AI demand—up 31% year-over-year in recent quarterly results—and bullish analyst targets averaging $415 from firms like Goldman Sachs. Broader market tailwinds from cooling inflation data and Fed rate cut expectations further bolster positioning. Realistic challenges include a surprise hawkish FOMC signal next week or escalating AI regulatory probes, potentially sparking a 2-3% pullback below $380, though historical weekly ranges suggest limited downside risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMicrosoft (MSFT) closes week of Mar 16 at ___?
Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Mar 16 at ___?
$380-$390 100.0%
<$360 <1%
$360-$370 <1%
$370-$380 <1%
$123,242 Vol.
$123,242 Vol.
<$360
No
$360-$370
No
$370-$380
No
$380-$390
Yes
$390-$400
No
$400-$410
No
$410-$420
No
$420-$430
No
$430-$440
No
$440-$450
No
>$450
No
$380-$390 100.0%
<$360 <1%
$360-$370 <1%
$370-$380 <1%
$123,242 Vol.
$123,242 Vol.
<$360
No
$360-$370
No
$370-$380
No
$380-$390
Yes
$390-$400
No
$400-$410
No
$410-$420
No
$420-$430
No
$430-$440
No
$440-$450
No
>$450
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft (MSFT) shares have locked in a 100% implied probability of closing the week of March 16 between $380 and $390, driven by the stock's current trading level firmly entrenched in that range amid low intraday volatility and steady Nasdaq momentum. Trader consensus reflects robust fundamentals, including blockbuster Azure cloud revenue growth from AI demand—up 31% year-over-year in recent quarterly results—and bullish analyst targets averaging $415 from firms like Goldman Sachs. Broader market tailwinds from cooling inflation data and Fed rate cut expectations further bolster positioning. Realistic challenges include a surprise hawkish FOMC signal next week or escalating AI regulatory probes, potentially sparking a 2-3% pullback below $380, though historical weekly ranges suggest limited downside risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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