Microsoft shares have traded sharply lower through the first four sessions of the week, closing at 460.52 on June 1 before falling to 428.05 by June 4 amid elevated capex concerns and questions over AI-related margin expansion. With the stock now hovering near 416–428 intraday on June 5, the 93.7% market-implied probability attached to the 410–420 bucket reflects the clear downward trajectory and limited time left before the weekly close. This positioning aligns with recent volume patterns and the absence of positive catalysts that could reverse the move. A late-session rebound on strong buying interest or unexpected positive commentary could still push the settlement outside that narrow band, though current levels suggest such an outcome would require a meaningful shift in intraday sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$410-$420 100.0%
<$380 <1%
$380-$390 <1%
$390-$400 <1%
$2,577 Vol.
$2,577 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
<$380
No
$380-$390
No
$390-$400
No
$400-$410
No
$410-$420
Yes
$420-$430
No
$430-$440
No
$440-$450
No
$450-$460
No
$460-$470
No
>$470
No
$410-$420 100.0%
<$380 <1%
$380-$390 <1%
$390-$400 <1%
$2,577 Vol.
$2,577 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
<$380
$225 Vol.
No
$380-$390
$348 Vol.
No
$390-$400
$109 Vol.
No
$400-$410
$125 Vol.
No
$410-$420
$417 Vol.
Yes
$420-$430
$385 Vol.
No
$430-$440
$188 Vol.
No
$440-$450
$175 Vol.
No
$450-$460
$97 Vol.
No
$460-$470
$92 Vol.
No
>$470
$416 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded sharply lower through the first four sessions of the week, closing at 460.52 on June 1 before falling to 428.05 by June 4 amid elevated capex concerns and questions over AI-related margin expansion. With the stock now hovering near 416–428 intraday on June 5, the 93.7% market-implied probability attached to the 410–420 bucket reflects the clear downward trajectory and limited time left before the weekly close. This positioning aligns with recent volume patterns and the absence of positive catalysts that could reverse the move. A late-session rebound on strong buying interest or unexpected positive commentary could still push the settlement outside that narrow band, though current levels suggest such an outcome would require a meaningful shift in intraday sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,577End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded sharply lower through the first four sessions of the week, closing at 460.52 on June 1 before falling to 428.05 by June 4 amid elevated capex concerns and questions over AI-related margin expansion. With the stock now hovering near 416–428 intraday on June 5, the 93.7% market-implied probability attached to the 410–420 bucket reflects the clear downward trajectory and limited time left before the weekly close. This positioning aligns with recent volume patterns and the absence of positive catalysts that could reverse the move. A late-session rebound on strong buying interest or unexpected positive commentary could still push the settlement outside that narrow band, though current levels suggest such an outcome would require a meaningful shift in intraday sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$2,577End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Microsoft shares have traded sharply lower through the first four sessions of the week, closing at 460.52 on June 1 before falling to 428.05 by June 4 amid elevated capex concerns and questions over AI-related margin expansion. With the stock now hovering near 416–428 intraday on June 5, the 93.7% market-implied probability attached to the 410–420 bucket reflects the clear downward trajectory and limited time left before the weekly close. This positioning aligns with recent volume patterns and the absence of positive catalysts that could reverse the move. A late-session rebound on strong buying interest or unexpected positive commentary could still push the settlement outside that narrow band, though current levels suggest such an outcome would require a meaningful shift in intraday sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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