Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, released July 29, represent the dominant driver of recent share-price momentum heading into the July 31 close. Revenue reached $90 billion (up 18% year-over-year) with adjusted EPS of $4.74, exceeding consensus by roughly 12%, fueled by 43% Azure growth and continued Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption. The stock rallied sharply from the mid-$390s pre-earnings to the $460–465 range, reversing much of its 19% year-to-date decline against a firmer S&P 500 backdrop. Traders are pricing in sustained AI-related capital expenditure and cloud demand, though elevated spending and macro sensitivity remain key variables. With the month-end resolution imminent, any final-session volatility tied to broader tech flows or index rebalancing could influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of July?
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of July?
$17,081 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
$270
Yes
$285
Yes
$300
Yes
$315
Yes
$330
Yes
$345
Yes
$360
Yes
$375
Yes
$390
Yes
$405
Yes
$420
Yes
$435
Yes
$450
Yes
$17,081 Vol.
$270
$221 Vol.
Yes
$285
$256 Vol.
Yes
$300
$219 Vol.
Yes
$315
$294 Vol.
Yes
$330
$2,480 Vol.
Yes
$345
$5,281 Vol.
Yes
$360
$465 Vol.
Yes
$375
$3,655 Vol.
Yes
$390
$1,091 Vol.
Yes
$405
$324 Vol.
Yes
$420
$380 Vol.
Yes
$435
$822 Vol.
Yes
$450
$1,592 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, released July 29, represent the dominant driver of recent share-price momentum heading into the July 31 close. Revenue reached $90 billion (up 18% year-over-year) with adjusted EPS of $4.74, exceeding consensus by roughly 12%, fueled by 43% Azure growth and continued Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption. The stock rallied sharply from the mid-$390s pre-earnings to the $460–465 range, reversing much of its 19% year-to-date decline against a firmer S&P 500 backdrop. Traders are pricing in sustained AI-related capital expenditure and cloud demand, though elevated spending and macro sensitivity remain key variables. With the month-end resolution imminent, any final-session volatility tied to broader tech flows or index rebalancing could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$17,081End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, released July 29, represent the dominant driver of recent share-price momentum heading into the July 31 close. Revenue reached $90 billion (up 18% year-over-year) with adjusted EPS of $4.74, exceeding consensus by roughly 12%, fueled by 43% Azure growth and continued Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption. The stock rallied sharply from the mid-$390s pre-earnings to the $460–465 range, reversing much of its 19% year-to-date decline against a firmer S&P 500 backdrop. Traders are pricing in sustained AI-related capital expenditure and cloud demand, though elevated spending and macro sensitivity remain key variables. With the month-end resolution imminent, any final-session volatility tied to broader tech flows or index rebalancing could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Volume
$17,081End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, released July 29, represent the dominant driver of recent share-price momentum heading into the July 31 close. Revenue reached $90 billion (up 18% year-over-year) with adjusted EPS of $4.74, exceeding consensus by roughly 12%, fueled by 43% Azure growth and continued Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption. The stock rallied sharply from the mid-$390s pre-earnings to the $460–465 range, reversing much of its 19% year-to-date decline against a firmer S&P 500 backdrop. Traders are pricing in sustained AI-related capital expenditure and cloud demand, though elevated spending and macro sensitivity remain key variables. With the month-end resolution imminent, any final-session volatility tied to broader tech flows or index rebalancing could influence the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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