Paul Skenes commands a narrow lead at 27.5% implied probability for the 2026 NL Cy Young, propelled by his rookie dominance with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 133 innings, but trader sentiment stays tightly clustered amid a surge of elite young arms. Hunter Greene's 100-mph heat and 2.36 ERA in 2024, Mitch Keller's career-best 3.67 ERA with 194 innings for Pittsburgh, and Jacob Misiorowski's explosive minor-league ascent—touching 102 mph as Milwaukee's top pitching prospect—create intense competition. This parity reflects NL rotation depth, where health, workload sustainability, and team playoff pushes could swing the award among these high-velocity aces with ace potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaul Skenes 23%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 12%
Cristopher Sanchez 11%
Hunter Greene 5.5%
Paul Skenes
28%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
12%
Cristopher Sanchez
11%
Hunter Greene
23%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Chris Sale
4%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Logan Webb
2%
Shohei Ohtani
7%
Freddy Peralta
2%
Nolan McLean
6%
Tyler Glasnow
2%
Eury Perez
2%
Zack Wheeler
1%
Jesus Luzardo
1%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Michael King
1%
Nick Pivetta
1%
Spencer Schwellenbach
1%
Mitch Keller
23%
Spencer Strider
1%
Paul Skenes 23%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 12%
Cristopher Sanchez 11%
Hunter Greene 5.5%
Paul Skenes
28%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
12%
Cristopher Sanchez
11%
Hunter Greene
23%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Chris Sale
4%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Logan Webb
2%
Shohei Ohtani
7%
Freddy Peralta
2%
Nolan McLean
6%
Tyler Glasnow
2%
Eury Perez
2%
Zack Wheeler
1%
Jesus Luzardo
1%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Michael King
1%
Nick Pivetta
1%
Spencer Schwellenbach
1%
Mitch Keller
23%
Spencer Strider
1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Paul Skenes commands a narrow lead at 27.5% implied probability for the 2026 NL Cy Young, propelled by his rookie dominance with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 133 innings, but trader sentiment stays tightly clustered amid a surge of elite young arms. Hunter Greene's 100-mph heat and 2.36 ERA in 2024, Mitch Keller's career-best 3.67 ERA with 194 innings for Pittsburgh, and Jacob Misiorowski's explosive minor-league ascent—touching 102 mph as Milwaukee's top pitching prospect—create intense competition. This parity reflects NL rotation depth, where health, workload sustainability, and team playoff pushes could swing the award among these high-velocity aces with ace potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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