Market icon
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Market icon
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Gunnar Henderson 71%

Yordan Alvarez 26%

Aaron Judge 25.6%

Cal Raleigh 21%

Polymarket
NEW

Gunnar Henderson 71%

Yordan Alvarez 26%

Aaron Judge 25.6%

Cal Raleigh 21%

Polymarket
NEW

Gunnar Henderson

$0 Vol.

71%

Yordan Alvarez

$0 Vol.

26%

Aaron Judge

$0 Vol.

26%

Cal Raleigh

$0 Vol.

21%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$0 Vol.

19%

Nick Kurtz

$0 Vol.

11%

Julio Rodríguez

$0 Vol.

10%

Corey Seager

$0 Vol.

9%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$0 Vol.

7%

José Ramírez

$0 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 33% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award after his breakout 2024 campaign, slashing .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 21 steals en route to AL MVP runner-up honors, positioning the 24-year-old Orioles shortstop for continued dominance. Aaron Judge follows at 22.4% on his historic .322/.458/.701 line, 58 homers, and 2024 Hank Aaron win, though he'll turn 34 amid Yankees' recent World Series loss. Cal Raleigh's 34 catcher homers and Bobby Witt Jr.'s .332 average, 32 blasts, and 31 steals keep them competitive, while Yordan Alvarez's power persists despite injury history; prospect Nick Kurtz gains traction post his #4 draft selection and college slugging prowess. Odds reflect youth trajectories and recent postseason momentum from Royals and Mariners.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 33% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award after his breakout 2024 campaign, slashing .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 21 steals en route to AL MVP runner-up honors, positioning the 24-year-old Orioles shortstop for continued dominance. Aaron Judge follows at 22.4% on his historic .322/.458/.701 line, 58 homers, and 2024 Hank Aaron win, though he'll turn 34 amid Yankees' recent World Series loss. Cal Raleigh's 34 catcher homers and Bobby Witt Jr.'s .332 average, 32 blasts, and 31 steals keep them competitive, while Yordan Alvarez's power persists despite injury history; prospect Nick Kurtz gains traction post his #4 draft selection and college slugging prowess. Odds reflect youth trajectories and recent postseason momentum from Royals and Mariners.

Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 33% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award after his breakout 2024 campaign, slashing .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 21 steals en route to AL MVP runner-up honors, positioning the 24-year-old Orioles shortstop for continued dominance. Aaron Judge follows at 22.4% on his historic .322/.458/.701 line, 58 homers, and 2024 Hank Aaron win, though he'll turn 34 amid Yankees' recent World Series loss. Cal Raleigh's 34 catcher homers and Bobby Witt Jr.'s .332 average, 32 blasts, and 31 steals keep them competitive, while Yordan Alvarez's power persists despite injury history; prospect Nick Kurtz gains traction post his #4 draft selection and college slugging prowess. Odds reflect youth trajectories and recent postseason momentum from Royals and Mariners.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?

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Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

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Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gunnar Henderson" at 36%, followed by "Aaron Judge" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is "Gunnar Henderson" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aaron Judge" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.