Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel x Syria security deal before September?

Market icon

Israel x Syria security deal before September?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$274,449 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$274,449 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Volume
$274,449
End Date
Sep 1, 2025
Market Opened
Jun 25, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Volume
$274,449
End Date
Sep 1, 2025
Market Opened
Jun 25, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying agreements must directly address border security and demarcation, military de-escalation, airstrike cessation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, if no such statements are made, the market may resolve based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel x Syria security deal before September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel x Syria security deal before September?" has generated $274.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel x Syria security deal before September?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Israel x Syria security deal before September?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Israel x Syria security deal before September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.