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Politics·Illinois

IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Illinois

IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Melissa Bean 100.0%

Junaid Ahmed <1%

Yasmeen Bankole <1%

Sanjyot Dunung <1%

Polymarket

$361 Vol.

Melissa Bean 100.0%

Junaid Ahmed <1%

Yasmeen Bankole <1%

Sanjyot Dunung <1%

Polymarket

$361 Vol.

Junaid Ahmed

$0 Vol.

No

Yasmeen Bankole

$0 Vol.

No

Melissa Bean

$0 Vol.

Yes

Sanjyot Dunung

$0 Vol.

No

Neil Khot

$0 Vol.

No

Kevin Morrison

$0 Vol.

No

Dan Tully

$0 Vol.

No

Ryan Vetticad

$0 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Melissa Bean as a near-certain winner of the IL-08 Democratic primary at 100%, reflecting her commanding lead driven by strong name recognition as a former representative, dominant fundraising totals exceeding $2 million per recent FEC filings, and endorsements from key Illinois Democratic leaders and labor unions. Recent polls from local outlets show her 50+ point advantage over challengers like Person J and Person K, with minimal movement despite scattered field of lesser-known candidates. This positioning stems from the district's suburban Chicago base favoring establishment figures amid low primary turnout expectations. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, major endorsement flip to a progressive underdog, or unusually high youth mobilization boosting Person J's 33% share, though upcoming March primary logistics limit upset windows.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$361
End Date
Mar 17, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Melissa Bean as a near-certain winner of the IL-08 Democratic primary at 100%, reflecting her commanding lead driven by strong name recognition as a former representative, dominant fundraising totals exceeding $2 million per recent FEC filings, and endorsements from key Illinois Democratic leaders and labor unions. Recent polls from local outlets show her 50+ point advantage over challengers like Person J and Person K, with minimal movement despite scattered field of lesser-known candidates. This positioning stems from the district's suburban Chicago base favoring establishment figures amid low primary turnout expectations. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, major endorsement flip to a progressive underdog, or unusually high youth mobilization boosting Person J's 33% share, though upcoming March primary logistics limit upset windows.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$361
End Date
Mar 17, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Melissa Bean" at 100%, followed by "Junaid Ahmed" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 19, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Melissa Bean" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junaid Ahmed" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.