Name: How many Fed rate cuts this year?
Start: 2024-03-21T16:44:39.455745Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the expected number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts occurring within the current calendar year.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

1 (25 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2024, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 2 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 3 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

2 (50 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

3 (75 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

5 (125 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

4 (100 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

6 or more (150+ bps)

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If FDX does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for FDX.

FedEx (FDX) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the trailing 1-week percentage return of the Nancy Pelosi Index is positive for the last trading day of the week beginning December 1.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the trailing 1-week percentage return of the Nancy Pelosi Index is negative for the last trading day of the week beginning December 1.

If the listed performance figure is flat, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for the Nancy Pelosi Index is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559433043512836096

Information from the "Performance" table, specifically the 1 week trailing percentage return figure found under "1W", will be used to resolve this market, once information is published for all dates within the specified trading period.

Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If the specified index does not trade at all during the regular session, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by the relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days lack a specified price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution sources as the effective price for that day.

Updates to historical prices displayed by the listed index subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodology utilized by the specified index as of the resolution time, regardless of whether that methodology is later updated.

Nancy Pelosi Index Up or Down: Week of December 1

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla (TSLA) achieves a daily high price greater than 488.5399 USD during market hours by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the respective company’s intraday high quotes during the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Nasdaq website for the relevant ticker (https://www.nasdaq.com/), specifically the 'Today's High/Low' figure on the main page, as well as the 'High' column on the Historical Quotes page.

Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$250 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Korn Ferry (KFY) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for KFY prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Korn Ferry (KFY) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for KFY prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If KFY does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for KFY.

Korn Ferry (KFY) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Salesforce (CRM) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for CRM prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Salesforce (CRM) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for CRM prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If CRM does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for CRM.

Salesforce (CRM) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Rubrik (RBRK) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for RBRK prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Rubrik (RBRK) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for RBRK prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If RBRK does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for RBRK.

Rubrik (RBRK) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Dollar General (DG) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for DG prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Dollar General (DG) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for DG prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If DG does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for DG.

Dollar General (DG) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for HPE prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for HPE prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If HPE does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for HPE.

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

0
$2,049,580 Vol.
No

1 (25 bps)
$1,407,495 Vol.
No

2 (50 bps)
$3,982,526 Vol.
No

3 (75 bps)
$8,337,157 Vol.
No

4 (100 bps)
$6,812,525 Vol.
Yes

5 (125 bps)
$6,683,118 Vol.
No

6 or more (150+ bps)
$20,169,086 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

About

Related

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

0$2,049,580 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1 (25 bps)$1,407,495 Vol.Nocircle xmark

2 (50 bps)$3,982,526 Vol.Nocircle xmark

3 (75 bps)$8,337,157 Vol.Nocircle xmark

4 (100 bps)$6,812,525 Vol.Yescircle check

5 (125 bps)$6,683,118 Vol.Nocircle xmark

6 or more (150+ bps)$20,169,086 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

About

Related

0
$2,049,580 Vol.
No

1 (25 bps)
$1,407,495 Vol.
No

2 (50 bps)
$3,982,526 Vol.
No

3 (75 bps)
$8,337,157 Vol.
No

4 (100 bps)
$6,812,525 Vol.
Yes

5 (125 bps)
$6,683,118 Vol.
No

6 or more (150+ bps)
$20,169,086 Vol.
No