Name: How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?
Start: 2025-01-09T16:51:07.911593Z
End: 2025-01-12T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on estimating the total acres that will be burned by wildfires in Los Angeles by Sunday.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 40,000 (inclusive) and 50,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

40-50k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 60,000 (inclusive) and 70,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

60-70k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 50,000 (inclusive) and 60,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

50-60k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 30,000 (inclusive) and 40,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

30-40k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 70,000 (inclusive) and 80,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

70-80k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn 80,000 or more acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

80k+

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn less than 30,000 acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

<30k

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between June 9 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).

For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?

This is a polymarket to predict whether the listed NFL team will win more than their projected number of games in the 2025–26 regular season.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 NFL regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win 10 or more regular season games?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California.

Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Denver Broncos win the AFC West in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Denver Broncos team to win the AFC West based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

The total number of crime complaints recorded by the Police Department of the City of New York for the week of 11/24/2025 through 11/30/2025 was 2,030.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the NYPD records a number of total incidents higher than the indicated number in its next released weekly report (12/1/2025 - 12/7/2025). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYPD, specifically the "City Wide Crime Statistics Weekly" report found here: https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/citywide-crime-stats.page

If this release has not been posted by December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

NYC crime up this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM CET. The fire must be confirmed by an official Gävle Goat social media account, the City of Gävle's official website, or a consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If the Gävle Goat is destroyed by other means this will not  qualify.

Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is the top scoring wide receiver during the 2025-26 NFL regular season. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will be based on ESPN's FFL Points Per Reception (PPR) scoring, and refers to the totals for the entirety of the 2025-26 NFL regular season. 

In case of a tie for the most points scored, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. 

If the 2025-26 NFL regular season is cancelled or not completed by April 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". 

The resolution source for this market will be ESPN Fantasy https://fantasy.espn.com/football/leaders. 

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by  State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

California redistricting referendum passes?

This market will resolve to "Wicked" if “Wicked: For Good” (2025) will gross more domestically on its opening weekend compared to "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (2025).

This market will resolve to "Avatar" if “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) will gross at least as much on its opening weekend compared to "Wicked: For Good" (2025).

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "Wicked: For Good" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=summary) and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-Fire-and-Ash-(2025)#tab=summary) will be used once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (November 21-23/December 19-21) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). 

Please note that this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether 'domestic' refers to only the USA, or to the USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for September 21 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Oilers, the market will resolve to "Oilers".
If the Flames, the market will resolve to "Flames".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Oilers vs. Flames

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Los Angeles Rams team to win the NFC West based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karen Bass is no longer serving as Mayor of Los Angeles for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Karen Bass's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

<30k
$9,531 Vol.
No

30-40k
$23,777 Vol.
No

40-50k
$29,853 Vol.
Yes

50-60k
$28,924 Vol.
No

60-70k
$34,664 Vol.
No

70-80k
$53,731 Vol.
No

80k+
$37,876 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Rules

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Market Context

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

About

Related

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

<30k$9,531 Vol.Nocircle xmark

30-40k$23,777 Vol.Nocircle xmark

40-50k$29,853 Vol.Yescircle check

50-60k$28,924 Vol.Nocircle xmark

60-70k$34,664 Vol.Nocircle xmark

70-80k$53,731 Vol.Nocircle xmark

80k+$37,876 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Rules

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Market Context

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

About

Related

<30k
$9,531 Vol.
No

30-40k
$23,777 Vol.
No

40-50k
$29,853 Vol.
Yes

50-60k
$28,924 Vol.
No

60-70k
$34,664 Vol.
No

70-80k
$53,731 Vol.
No

80k+
$37,876 Vol.
No