Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global models like ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 33-34°C in Lucknow on March 19, driving the market's 85.5% implied probability for 34°C or below as the consensus outcome. This aligns with seasonal norms for early March, where historical averages hover around 32°C amid lingering winter influences, and recent northerly winds have suppressed heat buildup following mild precipitation. Trader sentiment favors this bucket over 35°C (10.5%) due to no heatwave signals in official outlooks, with low odds for extremes reflecting model agreement on stable anticyclonic conditions and minimal convective activity. Upcoming hourly observations from IMD will refine resolution near midnight UTC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 19?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 19?
34°C or below 85%
35°C 12%
36°C 1.4%
37°C <1%
$66,275 Vol.
$66,275 Vol.
34°C or below
85%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
34°C or below 85%
35°C 12%
36°C 1.4%
37°C <1%
$66,275 Vol.
$66,275 Vol.
34°C or below
85%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global models like ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 33-34°C in Lucknow on March 19, driving the market's 85.5% implied probability for 34°C or below as the consensus outcome. This aligns with seasonal norms for early March, where historical averages hover around 32°C amid lingering winter influences, and recent northerly winds have suppressed heat buildup following mild precipitation. Trader sentiment favors this bucket over 35°C (10.5%) due to no heatwave signals in official outlooks, with low odds for extremes reflecting model agreement on stable anticyclonic conditions and minimal convective activity. Upcoming hourly observations from IMD will refine resolution near midnight UTC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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