Name: Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?
Start: 2025-12-21T11:18:51.41927Z
End: 2025-12-23T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

27°C or below

28°C

29°C

30°C

31°C

32°C

33°C or higher

Buenos Aires Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

archHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 10?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 13?

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 10?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 6?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 7?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 11?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 8?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 9?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 12?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 14?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 15?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 18?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 19?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 20?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 21?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Dec '25.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 22?

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the percentage increase in Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2025 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), scheduled to be released in January 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If the report for December 2025 is not released by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve according to the last figure published.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentinian, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) increased in December 2025 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. 

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2025, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).

This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2025, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).

If the official rate for that date has not been published by January 7, 2026, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.

The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g. 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1474.99 on December 31 2025?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record.

Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households across urban areas in Brazil, measuring changes in prices for a diverse set of goods and services.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 12-month IPCA for December 2025 is below 5.50%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#ipca) public release of 12 month IPCA figure for December 2025, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure.

Because this market's resolution source reports inflation over 12 month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.56%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.

Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.

Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending January 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending in January 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for January 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on February 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2025 as reported by Eurostat.

This market will resolve according to the number the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Eurostat report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2025, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar

Will the Eurozone's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in December?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending December 2025 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in January 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2025 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in December 2025", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Will China's annual inflation increase by between 0.4% and 0.6% in December?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2025 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Consumer Price Index” option under the "Key Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting "Table 1". The relevant figure can be found under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665

Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.2% in December?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is a major soccer tournament held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, with games at multiple stadiums across North America. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Argentina during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Weather Service records a snowfall observed value of at least .5 inches for the listed city on December 25, 2025.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Chicago O’Hare (Chicago), St. Louis, MO (St. Louis), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Detroit, MI (Detroit), Boston-Logan Airport (Boston), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Downtown San Francisco (San Francisco), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), and Washington-National (Washington D.C.).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

27°C or below
$144 Vol.
48%

28°C
$0 Vol.
37%

29°C
$0 Vol.
33%

30°C
$0 Vol.
33%

31°C
$0 Vol.
33%

32°C
$0 Vol.
56%

33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
56%

Market Context

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

Rules

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

Market Context

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

About

Related

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

27°C or below$144 Vol.48%buy Yes94.6¢buy No99.0¢

28°C$0 Vol.37%buy Yes73¢buy No99¢

29°C$0 Vol.33%buy Yes65¢buy No99¢

30°C$0 Vol.33%buy Yes65¢buy No99¢

31°C$0 Vol.33%buy Yes65¢buy No99¢

32°C$0 Vol.56%buy Yes92¢buy No80¢

33°C or higher$0 Vol.56%buy Yes92¢buy No79¢

Market Context

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

Rules

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

Market Context

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on December 23?

About

Related

27°C or below
$144 Vol.
48%

28°C
$0 Vol.
37%

29°C
$0 Vol.
33%

30°C
$0 Vol.
33%

31°C
$0 Vol.
33%

32°C
$0 Vol.
56%

33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
56%