Mercedes holds a commanding lead in the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship with 135 points after three Grands Prix, powering trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability through dominant 1-2 finishes in Australia and wins for Kimi Antonelli in China and Japan, where he seized the drivers' lead ahead of teammate George Russell. Ferrari trails at 90 points (10.5% odds) on Charles Leclerc's consistent podiums and Lewis Hamilton's support, while McLaren's 46 points (7.3%) reflect sporadic pace from Lando Norris. Red Bull's struggles (1.6%) stem from Max Verstappen's low finishes amid adaptation issues to new active aero and sustainable fuel regs, positioning Mercedes as the clear favorite barring reliability setbacks or rival upgrades before Bahrain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMercedes 78%
Ferrari 11%
McLaren 7.3%
Red Bull Racing 1.6%
$9,736,509 Vol.
$9,736,509 Vol.

Mercedes
78%

Ferrari
11%

McLaren
7%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
1%

Aston Martin
1%

Audi
1%

Cadillac
1%

Racing Bulls
1%

Haas
1%

Alpine
1%
Mercedes 78%
Ferrari 11%
McLaren 7.3%
Red Bull Racing 1.6%
$9,736,509 Vol.
$9,736,509 Vol.

Mercedes
78%

Ferrari
11%

McLaren
7%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
1%

Aston Martin
1%

Audi
1%

Cadillac
1%

Racing Bulls
1%

Haas
1%

Alpine
1%
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mercedes holds a commanding lead in the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship with 135 points after three Grands Prix, powering trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability through dominant 1-2 finishes in Australia and wins for Kimi Antonelli in China and Japan, where he seized the drivers' lead ahead of teammate George Russell. Ferrari trails at 90 points (10.5% odds) on Charles Leclerc's consistent podiums and Lewis Hamilton's support, while McLaren's 46 points (7.3%) reflect sporadic pace from Lando Norris. Red Bull's struggles (1.6%) stem from Max Verstappen's low finishes amid adaptation issues to new active aero and sustainable fuel regs, positioning Mercedes as the clear favorite barring reliability setbacks or rival upgrades before Bahrain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions