Mercedes holds a commanding 45-point lead in the Constructors' Championship after four Grands Prix, with 135 points from Kimi Antonelli's drivers' lead (72 points) and George Russell's consistent podiums, fueled by superior chassis balance and power unit efficiency under 2026 regulations. Ferrari trails at 90 points via Charles Leclerc's strong starts but lacks the outright race pace shown in Australia and China, where Mercedes swept 1-2 finishes. McLaren's 46 points reflect occasional podium potential, while Red Bull's meager 16 points stem from reliability woes and qualifying deficits, relegating them to midfield. Trader consensus prices Mercedes at 77.5% implied probability, acknowledging the season's length but emphasizing rivals' struggles to close the gap amid Mercedes' energy management edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMercedes 78%
Ferrari 11%
McLaren 7.3%
Red Bull Racing 1.6%
$9,724,943 Vol.
$9,724,943 Vol.

Mercedes
78%

Ferrari
11%

McLaren
7%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
1%

Aston Martin
1%

Audi
1%

Cadillac
1%

Racing Bulls
1%

Haas
1%

Alpine
1%
Mercedes 78%
Ferrari 11%
McLaren 7.3%
Red Bull Racing 1.6%
$9,724,943 Vol.
$9,724,943 Vol.

Mercedes
78%

Ferrari
11%

McLaren
7%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
1%

Aston Martin
1%

Audi
1%

Cadillac
1%

Racing Bulls
1%

Haas
1%

Alpine
1%
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mercedes holds a commanding 45-point lead in the Constructors' Championship after four Grands Prix, with 135 points from Kimi Antonelli's drivers' lead (72 points) and George Russell's consistent podiums, fueled by superior chassis balance and power unit efficiency under 2026 regulations. Ferrari trails at 90 points via Charles Leclerc's strong starts but lacks the outright race pace shown in Australia and China, where Mercedes swept 1-2 finishes. McLaren's 46 points reflect occasional podium potential, while Red Bull's meager 16 points stem from reliability woes and qualifying deficits, relegating them to midfield. Trader consensus prices Mercedes at 77.5% implied probability, acknowledging the season's length but emphasizing rivals' struggles to close the gap amid Mercedes' energy management edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions