Traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to “No” on Dalton Eatherly, known as Chud the Builder, facing conviction primarily because of credible self-defense claims in the May 2026 courthouse shooting. Multiple eyewitness accounts describe the alleged victim striking first during a public altercation in Clarksville, Tennessee, aligning with the streamer’s mutual-combat narrative and Tennessee’s stand-your-ground provisions. The case remains in early pre-trial stages after transfer to Circuit Court, with bond set at $1 million plus restrictions and no grand jury action reported yet, leaving ample room for plea deals or acquittal. Polarized public funding for Eatherly and the absence of decisive new evidence further support market skepticism toward a swift guilty verdict. Upcoming bond hearings and indictment updates represent key swing factors.