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Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?

Market icon

Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,088,088 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,088,088 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6, 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory.

Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution.

The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,088,088
End Date
May 9, 2025
Market Opened
May 6, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6, 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6, 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory.

Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution.

The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,088,088
End Date
May 9, 2025
Market Opened
May 6, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6, 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?" has generated $5.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.