Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump Presidency

50% India tariff in effect by August 27?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump Presidency

50% India tariff in effect by August 27?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$76,902 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$76,902 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.

A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$76,902
End Date
Aug 27, 2025
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2025, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.

A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$76,902
End Date
Aug 27, 2025
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2025, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"50% India tariff in effect by August 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "50% India tariff in effect by August 27?" has generated $76.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "50% India tariff in effect by August 27?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "50% India tariff in effect by August 27?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "50% India tariff in effect by August 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.