Entering the final round at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, trader consensus reflects a razor-thin leaderboard where Thorbjorn Olesen, Emiliano Grillo, Mackenzie Hughes, and Patrick Fishburn lead within one stroke, driving the bunched probabilities around 27-29%. This parity stems from consistent ball-striking and putting from these mid-tier contenders, who capitalized on firm greens and minimal wind during Rounds 2-3, posting sub-par rounds without standout dominance. No major injuries or withdrawals alter the mix, while big names like Matt Fitzpatrick trail further back, underscoring the volatility of stroke-play scoring where birdie runs can swing outcomes rapidly—historical Valspar finishes often see surprise leaders emerge on Sunday. Crowd wisdom prices in this uncertainty evenly across the top pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSung-Jae Im 22.0%
Matt Fitzpatrick 12.8%
Chandler Blanchet 7.9%
David Lipsky 6.5%
$144,341 Vol.
$144,341 Vol.
Sung-Jae Im
22%
Matt Fitzpatrick
13%
Chandler Blanchet
8%
David Lipsky
7%
Doug Ghim
6%
Brooks Koepka
5%
Jacob Bridgeman
5%
Corey Conners
4%
Marco Penge
4%
Pierceson Coody
4%
Davis Chatfield
3%
Xander Schauffele
3%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
3%
Tony Finau
3%
David Ford
2%
Patrick Cantlay
2%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Ricky Castillo
1%
Keegan Bradley
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Blades Brown
1%
Chandler Phillips
1%
John Parry
1%
Matthias Schmid
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
23%
Chad Ramey
22%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Kevin Roy
22%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Michael Kim
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
20%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Henry Lebioda
<1%
Robert MacIntyre
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Max Greyserman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
-
Patrick Fishburn
-
Emiliano Grillo
-
Mackenzie Hughes
-
Tom Kim
-
Andrew Novak
-
Thorbjorn Olesen
-
Sung-Jae Im 22.0%
Matt Fitzpatrick 12.8%
Chandler Blanchet 7.9%
David Lipsky 6.5%
$144,341 Vol.
$144,341 Vol.
Sung-Jae Im
22%
Matt Fitzpatrick
13%
Chandler Blanchet
8%
David Lipsky
7%
Doug Ghim
6%
Brooks Koepka
5%
Jacob Bridgeman
5%
Corey Conners
4%
Marco Penge
4%
Pierceson Coody
4%
Davis Chatfield
3%
Xander Schauffele
3%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
3%
Tony Finau
3%
David Ford
2%
Patrick Cantlay
2%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Ricky Castillo
1%
Keegan Bradley
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Blades Brown
1%
Chandler Phillips
1%
John Parry
1%
Matthias Schmid
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
23%
Chad Ramey
22%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Kevin Roy
22%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Michael Kim
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
20%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Henry Lebioda
<1%
Robert MacIntyre
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Max Greyserman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
-
Patrick Fishburn
-
Emiliano Grillo
-
Mackenzie Hughes
-
Tom Kim
-
Andrew Novak
-
Thorbjorn Olesen
-
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valspar Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valspar Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by March 28, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Entering the final round at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, trader consensus reflects a razor-thin leaderboard where Thorbjorn Olesen, Emiliano Grillo, Mackenzie Hughes, and Patrick Fishburn lead within one stroke, driving the bunched probabilities around 27-29%. This parity stems from consistent ball-striking and putting from these mid-tier contenders, who capitalized on firm greens and minimal wind during Rounds 2-3, posting sub-par rounds without standout dominance. No major injuries or withdrawals alter the mix, while big names like Matt Fitzpatrick trail further back, underscoring the volatility of stroke-play scoring where birdie runs can swing outcomes rapidly—historical Valspar finishes often see surprise leaders emerge on Sunday. Crowd wisdom prices in this uncertainty evenly across the top pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions