Peter Malnati's three-shot lead at -10 after 54 holes has reshaped trader consensus for Valspar Championship top-5 finishes, elevating his implied probability while boosting Keith Mitchell (-9) and J.J. Spaun (-8) as strong contenders at Innisbrook's demanding Copperhead layout. Recent developments include Taylor Moore's charge to -7 via hot putter, but pre-tournament favorites like Xander Schauffele (T10 at -4) and Tony Finau (T20) face steep climbs amid firm Poa greens favoring precision iron play. Sunday's final round pairings and potential wind could spark volatility, with historical data showing 70% of 54-hole top-5 leaders finishing inside the group, though upsets like 2023's Taylor Duncan prove the Snake Pit's peril.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$18,516 Vol.
Jacob Bridgeman
100%
Corey Conners
100%
Matt Fitzpatrick
100%
Patrick Cantlay
100%
Ricky Castillo
100%
Sung-Jae Im
100%
Tom Kim
100%
Brooks Koepka
100%
Xander Schauffele
100%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
100%
Chandler Phillips
100%
Thorbjorn Olesen
100%
Chandler Blanchet
100%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
99%
Pierceson Coody
99%
Ze-Cheng Dou
99%
A.J. Ewart
99%
Tony Finau
99%
Patrick Fishburn
99%
Takumi Kanaya
99%
David Lipsky
99%
Bud Cauley
99%
Davis Chatfield
99%
David Ford
99%
Doug Ghim
99%
Emiliano Grillo
99%
Kensei Hirata
99%
Ryo Hisatsune
99%
Rico Hoey
99%
Rasmus Hojgaard
99%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
99%
Henry Lebioda
99%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
99%
Marco Penge
99%
Chad Ramey
99%
Patrick Rodgers
99%
Kevin Roy
99%
Isaiah Salinda
99%
Blades Brown
97%
Lee Hodges
81%
Nicolai Hojgaard
50%
Billy Horschel
50%
Michael Kim
50%
Andrew Novak
50%
John Parry
50%
Matthieu Pavon
50%
Matthias Schmid
50%
Keith Mitchell
5%
Max Greyserman
3%
Keegan Bradley
2%
Mackenzie Hughes
2%
Stephan Jaeger
1%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
$18,516 Vol.
Jacob Bridgeman
100%
Corey Conners
100%
Matt Fitzpatrick
100%
Patrick Cantlay
100%
Ricky Castillo
100%
Sung-Jae Im
100%
Tom Kim
100%
Brooks Koepka
100%
Xander Schauffele
100%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
100%
Chandler Phillips
100%
Thorbjorn Olesen
100%
Chandler Blanchet
100%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
99%
Pierceson Coody
99%
Ze-Cheng Dou
99%
A.J. Ewart
99%
Tony Finau
99%
Patrick Fishburn
99%
Takumi Kanaya
99%
David Lipsky
99%
Bud Cauley
99%
Davis Chatfield
99%
David Ford
99%
Doug Ghim
99%
Emiliano Grillo
99%
Kensei Hirata
99%
Ryo Hisatsune
99%
Rico Hoey
99%
Rasmus Hojgaard
99%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
99%
Henry Lebioda
99%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
99%
Marco Penge
99%
Chad Ramey
99%
Patrick Rodgers
99%
Kevin Roy
99%
Isaiah Salinda
99%
Blades Brown
97%
Lee Hodges
81%
Nicolai Hojgaard
50%
Billy Horschel
50%
Michael Kim
50%
Andrew Novak
50%
John Parry
50%
Matthieu Pavon
50%
Matthias Schmid
50%
Keith Mitchell
5%
Max Greyserman
3%
Keegan Bradley
2%
Mackenzie Hughes
2%
Stephan Jaeger
1%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Peter Malnati's three-shot lead at -10 after 54 holes has reshaped trader consensus for Valspar Championship top-5 finishes, elevating his implied probability while boosting Keith Mitchell (-9) and J.J. Spaun (-8) as strong contenders at Innisbrook's demanding Copperhead layout. Recent developments include Taylor Moore's charge to -7 via hot putter, but pre-tournament favorites like Xander Schauffele (T10 at -4) and Tony Finau (T20) face steep climbs amid firm Poa greens favoring precision iron play. Sunday's final round pairings and potential wind could spark volatility, with historical data showing 70% of 54-hole top-5 leaders finishing inside the group, though upsets like 2023's Taylor Duncan prove the Snake Pit's peril.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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