Trader consensus on the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows razor-thin separation among Arizona (19.1%), Michigan (18.5%), and Duke (17.5%), driven by elite 2026 recruiting classes and transfer portal momentum that create widespread parity. Arizona boasts the nation's No. 1 class anchored by five-star forward Koa Peat and depth from prior cycles under Tommy Lloyd, fueling their edge. Michigan's hire of Dusty May has sparked hype with top-10 commits and returning core, while Duke's perennial pipeline—including Cameron Boozer—sustains Scheyer's juggernaut. Yet, unresolved commitments like AJ Dybantsa, portal flux, and distant season timelines keep the field bunched, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing early-season volatility over any single powerhouse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArizona 19.1%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Florida 9.0%
$22,464,032 Vol.
$22,464,032 Vol.
Arizona
19%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Florida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
4%
Illinois
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
4%
Arkansas
3%
Michigan State
2%
Gonzaga
2%
St John's
2%
UCLA
2%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Alabama
1%
Nebraska
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Virginia
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Iowa
<1%
VCU
<1%
Clemson
<1%
Villanova
<1%
UCF
<1%
Miami (OH)
<1%
Norhtern Iowa
<1%
LIU
<1%
Prairie View A&M
<1%
Hofstra
<1%
Missouri
<1%
Texas
<1%
Cal Baptist
<1%
Furman
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Queens
<1%
Wright State
<1%
Arizona 19.1%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Florida 9.0%
$22,464,032 Vol.
$22,464,032 Vol.
Arizona
19%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Florida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
4%
Illinois
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
4%
Arkansas
3%
Michigan State
2%
Gonzaga
2%
St John's
2%
UCLA
2%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Alabama
1%
Nebraska
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Virginia
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Iowa
<1%
VCU
<1%
Clemson
<1%
Villanova
<1%
UCF
<1%
Miami (OH)
<1%
Norhtern Iowa
<1%
LIU
<1%
Prairie View A&M
<1%
Hofstra
<1%
Missouri
<1%
Texas
<1%
Cal Baptist
<1%
Furman
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Queens
<1%
Wright State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Market Opened: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows razor-thin separation among Arizona (19.1%), Michigan (18.5%), and Duke (17.5%), driven by elite 2026 recruiting classes and transfer portal momentum that create widespread parity. Arizona boasts the nation's No. 1 class anchored by five-star forward Koa Peat and depth from prior cycles under Tommy Lloyd, fueling their edge. Michigan's hire of Dusty May has sparked hype with top-10 commits and returning core, while Duke's perennial pipeline—including Cameron Boozer—sustains Scheyer's juggernaut. Yet, unresolved commitments like AJ Dybantsa, portal flux, and distant season timelines keep the field bunched, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing early-season volatility over any single powerhouse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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