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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Market icon

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain 15.8%

France 12.8%

England 12.0%

Argentina 9.2%

Polymarket

$463,964,039 Vol.

Spain 15.8%

France 12.8%

England 12.0%

Argentina 9.2%

Polymarket

$463,964,039 Vol.

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Spain

$6,808,560 Vol.

16%

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France

$5,599,410 Vol.

13%

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England

$7,534,709 Vol.

12%

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Argentina

$7,676,831 Vol.

9%

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Brazil

$7,177,659 Vol.

9%

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Portugal

$8,733,069 Vol.

7%

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Germany

$7,019,591 Vol.

5%

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Netherlands

$9,471,546 Vol.

3%

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Norway

$7,603,614 Vol.

3%

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Belgium

$7,782,882 Vol.

2%

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Japan

$9,521,108 Vol.

2%

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Colombia

$7,488,977 Vol.

2%

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USA

$4,750,978 Vol.

2%

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Morocco

$9,116,109 Vol.

2%

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Uruguay

$7,628,976 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$7,991,531 Vol.

1%

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Switzerland

$8,886,879 Vol.

1%

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Mexico

$6,855,574 Vol.

1%

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Ecuador

$9,206,255 Vol.

1%

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Turkiye

$791,789 Vol.

1%

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Senegal

$8,371,261 Vol.

1%

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Sweden

$622,615 Vol.

1%

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Canada

$11,940,049 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$10,701,131 Vol.

1%

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South Korea

$13,773,390 Vol.

<1%

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Bosnia-Herzegovina

$688,485 Vol.

<1%

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Paraguay

$11,967,491 Vol.

<1%

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Ivory Coast

$9,395,180 Vol.

<1%

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Egypt

$11,018,434 Vol.

<1%

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Ghana

$10,545,707 Vol.

<1%

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Algeria

$11,268,278 Vol.

<1%

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Scotland

$11,335,640 Vol.

<1%

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Tunisia

$11,520,868 Vol.

<1%

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Cezchia

$137,506 Vol.

<1%

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Australia

$8,395,129 Vol.

<1%

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Saudi Arabia

$17,843,888 Vol.

<1%

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Haiti

$12,740,507 Vol.

<1%

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Jordan

$16,785,946 Vol.

<1%

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Iran

$11,856,709 Vol.

<1%

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Uzbekistan

$28,108,414 Vol.

<1%

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Panama

$1,607,217 Vol.

<1%

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South Africa

$19,787,205 Vol.

<1%

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Congo DR

$181,342 Vol.

<1%

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Cape Verde

$10,781,093 Vol.

<1%

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Qatar

$13,705,559 Vol.

<1%

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New Zealand

$17,481,531 Vol.

<1%

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Curaçao

$24,440,716 Vol.

<1%

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Iraq

$431,653 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their world No. 1 ranking, Euro 2024 championship, and 18-month unbeaten streak through dominant UEFA qualifiers, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. France (12.8%) and England (12.0%) keep the race tight with Mbappé's firepower and a deep England squad featuring Kane and Bellingham, respectively, as all top European powers secured spots early amid rigorous Nations League tests. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail slightly despite CONMEBOL supremacy—Argentina topping standings at 38 points—due to aging cores and recent qualifier inconsistencies, highlighting the expanded 48-team field's parity where no single contender dominates outright.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$463,964,039
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their world No. 1 ranking, Euro 2024 championship, and 18-month unbeaten streak through dominant UEFA qualifiers, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. France (12.8%) and England (12.0%) keep the race tight with Mbappé's firepower and a deep England squad featuring Kane and Bellingham, respectively, as all top European powers secured spots early amid rigorous Nations League tests. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail slightly despite CONMEBOL supremacy—Argentina topping standings at 38 points—due to aging cores and recent qualifier inconsistencies, highlighting the expanded 48-team field's parity where no single contender dominates outright.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$463,964,039
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 50+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " has generated $464 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner ," browse the 50+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is "Spain" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.