Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their world No. 1 ranking, Euro 2024 championship, and 18-month unbeaten streak through dominant UEFA qualifiers, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. France (12.8%) and England (12.0%) keep the race tight with Mbappé's firepower and a deep England squad featuring Kane and Bellingham, respectively, as all top European powers secured spots early amid rigorous Nations League tests. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail slightly despite CONMEBOL supremacy—Argentina topping standings at 38 points—due to aging cores and recent qualifier inconsistencies, highlighting the expanded 48-team field's parity where no single contender dominates outright.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
France 12.8%
England 12.0%
Argentina 9.2%
$463,964,039 Vol.
$463,964,039 Vol.

Spain
16%

France
13%

England
12%

Argentina
9%

Brazil
9%

Portugal
7%

Germany
5%

Netherlands
3%

Norway
3%

Belgium
2%

Japan
2%

Colombia
2%

USA
2%

Morocco
2%

Uruguay
1%

Croatia
1%

Switzerland
1%

Mexico
1%

Ecuador
1%

Turkiye
1%

Senegal
1%

Sweden
1%

Canada
1%

Austria
1%

South Korea
<1%

Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguay
<1%

Ivory Coast
<1%

Egypt
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algeria
<1%

Scotland
<1%

Tunisia
<1%

Cezchia
<1%

Australia
<1%

Saudi Arabia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordan
<1%

Iran
<1%

Uzbekistan
<1%

Panama
<1%

South Africa
<1%

Congo DR
<1%

Cape Verde
<1%

Qatar
<1%

New Zealand
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iraq
<1%
Spain 15.8%
France 12.8%
England 12.0%
Argentina 9.2%
$463,964,039 Vol.
$463,964,039 Vol.

Spain
16%

France
13%

England
12%

Argentina
9%

Brazil
9%

Portugal
7%

Germany
5%

Netherlands
3%

Norway
3%

Belgium
2%

Japan
2%

Colombia
2%

USA
2%

Morocco
2%

Uruguay
1%

Croatia
1%

Switzerland
1%

Mexico
1%

Ecuador
1%

Turkiye
1%

Senegal
1%

Sweden
1%

Canada
1%

Austria
1%

South Korea
<1%

Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguay
<1%

Ivory Coast
<1%

Egypt
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algeria
<1%

Scotland
<1%

Tunisia
<1%

Cezchia
<1%

Australia
<1%

Saudi Arabia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordan
<1%

Iran
<1%

Uzbekistan
<1%

Panama
<1%

South Africa
<1%

Congo DR
<1%

Cape Verde
<1%

Qatar
<1%

New Zealand
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iraq
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their world No. 1 ranking, Euro 2024 championship, and 18-month unbeaten streak through dominant UEFA qualifiers, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. France (12.8%) and England (12.0%) keep the race tight with Mbappé's firepower and a deep England squad featuring Kane and Bellingham, respectively, as all top European powers secured spots early amid rigorous Nations League tests. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail slightly despite CONMEBOL supremacy—Argentina topping standings at 38 points—due to aging cores and recent qualifier inconsistencies, highlighting the expanded 48-team field's parity where no single contender dominates outright.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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