Spain commands trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after dominating Euro 2024 with a flawless knockout run and topping UEFA Nations League Group A3 unbeaten, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams' emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. England trails at 12.8% following Nations League promotion from League B via Harry Kane's scoring and defensive solidity against Greece and Ireland. France sits at 10.9% despite Kylian Mbappé's talent, weighed by a dismal League A1 finish (third behind Italy and Belgium) with losses to Israel highlighting defensive frailties. Argentina (10.1%) leads CONMEBOL qualifiers post-Copa América triumph, but Brazil (8.6%) slumps in sixth amid Dorival Júnior's rebuild. Ongoing qualifiers across confederations, seeding uncertainties, aging stars like Messi, and host autos for USA-Canada-Mexico keep the market tightly contested with no runaway favorite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$390,319,990 Vol.
$390,319,990 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Japan
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$390,319,990 Vol.
$390,319,990 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Japan
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain commands trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after dominating Euro 2024 with a flawless knockout run and topping UEFA Nations League Group A3 unbeaten, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams' emergence alongside Rodri's midfield control. England trails at 12.8% following Nations League promotion from League B via Harry Kane's scoring and defensive solidity against Greece and Ireland. France sits at 10.9% despite Kylian Mbappé's talent, weighed by a dismal League A1 finish (third behind Italy and Belgium) with losses to Israel highlighting defensive frailties. Argentina (10.1%) leads CONMEBOL qualifiers post-Copa América triumph, but Brazil (8.6%) slumps in sixth amid Dorival Júnior's rebuild. Ongoing qualifiers across confederations, seeding uncertainties, aging stars like Messi, and host autos for USA-Canada-Mexico keep the market tightly contested with no runaway favorite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions