Name: 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers
Start: 2025-09-26T18:14:58.893877Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

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Improved notification preferences and types.

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Improved in-game view for sports markets.

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Enable updates from the sports websocket.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

A player will be considered to have qualified if they officially earn a place in the tournament under FIDE’s rules, regardless of whether they subsequently decline, withdraw, or otherwise do not participate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vladimir Fedoseev

Hikaru Nakamura

Arjun Erigaisi

Alireza Firouzja

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Hans Niemann

Magnus Carlsen

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Vincent Keymer

Ian Nepomniachtchi

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all Italy, Bolivia, and DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for one of these teams to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from their group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA.  (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team advances to the Round of 16 of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 24 of the league phase), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal advance to the round of 16?

The final list of participating countries for Eurovision 2026 is expected to be officially published by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) in mid-to-late December 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country is included in the earliest official list of participants for the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, as announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) or Eurovision by May 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will solely resolve based on the countries mentioned in the first official announcement; subsequent withdrawals or adjustments will not affect the resolution of this market.

If no qualifying list is published by May 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and Eurovision (e.g., https://eurovision.tv); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025–26 NHL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A team will be considered to have made the Playoffs if it qualifies for the postseason bracket under the official rules of the NHL for the 2025–26 season. Qualification through any officially recognized NHL format (including Wild Card berths) will count.

If it becomes impossible for the listed team to qualify for the Playoffs based on the rules of the NHL (e.g. the team is mathematically eliminated), this market will resolve immediately to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the Colorado Avalanche make the NHL Playoffs?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is a major soccer tournament held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, with games at multiple stadiums across North America. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Argentina during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel is officially banned or suspended from participating in FIFA competitions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement of a qualifying ban or suspension within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of when it takes effect or whether it is later revoked. Temporary suspensions or exclusions that prevent Israel from participating in FIFA competitions will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1. 


Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to begin on Thursday, June 11, and conclude on Sunday, July 19. More information about the match schedule can be found here (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums). According to ESPN, there have been complaints about the summertime heat across America, causing FIFA to consider relocating the 2026 World Cup out of the United States.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that any game originally scheduled to be held in the U.S. to be relocated to a location outside of the U.S. by June 10, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement will immediately resolve the market to "Yes" regardless of whether the relocation is later revoked. 

The resolution source will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour.

If multiple players are declared winners of the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour, this market will resolve according to the player whose listed first name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the winner of the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour is not announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Freestyle Chess (https://www.freestyle-chess.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 2nd in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to place 2nd in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 5th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to place 5th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will Charles Leclerc finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA.  (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 3rd in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to place 3rd in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Texas Tech win the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game?

The World Cup Draw is scheduled to take place on December 5, 2025, 12PM ET. (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/47165954/2026-world-cup-match-schedule-plan-revealed-day-draw).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such event is aired by December 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the event. Only the official English-language FIFA stream will count. The event will be streamed on the FIFA YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@fifa/streams).

Will "Peace" be said during the World Cup Draw on December 5?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ohio State win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 4th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to place 4th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will George Russell finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Georgia win the 2025 SEC Championship Game?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kennesaw State win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No".

If the listed team qualifies for the playoffs early, the market will resolve to "Yes". 
If the listed team is eliminated based on the rules of the competition, the market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will the Denver Broncos make the playoffs?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Virginia win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes fifth in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in fifth place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Williams finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes second in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season. 

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish second place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament.

If it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e., the team is eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No.”

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will South Carolina (Women’s) win the 2025–2026 SEC Regular Season?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes third in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in third place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Red Bull finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

This is a polymarket to predict which conference the team that wins the 2025-26 College Football National Championship will be from.

If a team from the listed conference wins the 2025-26 College Football National Championship, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the College Football Playoff is canceled or not completed by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from NCAA Football.

Will the 2025-26 College Football Champion come from the SEC?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes fourth in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in fourth place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Ferrari finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S.-based soccer club wins the 2025 MLS Cup, the 2025 U.S. Open Cup, and the 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup within the 2025–26 competitive season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for all U.S.-based teams to win any of these competitions based on the rules or elimination outcomes of the competitions, this market will resolve to "No".

Leagues Cup, Campeones Cup, and FIFA Club World Cup do not count toward this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible sports reporting following the conclusion of all three tournaments.

Will any U.S. soccer team win the treble in the 2025 season?

The 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa is scheduled to take place December 8-11, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after January 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed first name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Freestyle Chess (https://www.freestyle-chess.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player signs with a new club between market issuance and February 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any transfer, loan, loan extensions, or a free agent signing of a player that did not play for the club in the most recent season will qualify.

Transfers between a club’s senior and reserve or youth teams, as well as free agents re-signing with the team they most recently played for, will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the clubs involved, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Endrick sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

The World Cup Draw is scheduled to take place on December 5, 2025, 12PM ET. (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/47165954/2026-world-cup-match-schedule-plan-revealed-day-draw).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Donald Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the FIFA World Cup Draw event on December 5, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event. Only the official English-language FIFA stream will count. The event will be streamed on the FIFA YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@fifa/streams).

Will Trump say "Peace" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player wins the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 pm ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the final players agree to a prize‑money chop, this market will resolve based on the player who is awarded the official tournament trophy.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Peacock, along with streaming coverage on PokerGO and PokerStars. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a red flag is shown at any point during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, scheduled for Dec 7, 2025.

The market will resolve to "No" if the race is completed without any red flag periods.

If the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Dec 14, 2025, this market will resolve 50-50.

A red flag shown during practice sessions, qualifying sessions, or any other session besides the main race does not count for this market. Only red flags shown during the Grand Prix race itself will result in a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Will there be a red flag during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:

CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.

Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.

State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.

To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.

Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.

If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated. 

Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lists publicly tradable event-based contracts specifically related to sports at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from CME Group (https://www.cmegroup.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CME list sports event contracts by December 31?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Western Michigan win the 2025 Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).

An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked. 

Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

 The inaugural FIFA Peace Prize is scheduled to be awarded on December 5, 2025, during the final draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Washington, D.C. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wins the 2025 FIFA Peace Prize – Football Unites the World. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person or entity, this market will resolve to “Yes.”.

If no FIFA Peace Prize is awarded by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Hikaru Nakamura
$1,765 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
$3,666 Vol.
96%
0123456789
%

Nodirbek Abdusattorov
$540 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

Arjun Erigaisi
$2,645 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

Ian Nepomniachtchi
$322 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Vladimir Fedoseev
$55 Vol.
4%

Magnus Carlsen
$1,855 Vol.
4%

Hans Niemann
$1,525 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Vincent Keymer
$3,912 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
$360 Vol.
1%

Alireza Firouzja
$1,200 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Rules

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Market Context

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

About

Related

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Hikaru Nakamura$1,765 Vol.99%0123456789%buy Yes99.8¢buy No2.5¢

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa$3,666 Vol.96%0123456789%buy Yes98.4¢buy No6.8¢

Nodirbek Abdusattorov$540 Vol.8%0123456789%buy Yes14.8¢buy No99.8¢

Arjun Erigaisi$2,645 Vol.6%0123456789%buy Yes10.6¢buy No99.6¢

Ian Nepomniachtchi$322 Vol.4%0123456789%buy Yes8.3¢buy No99.6¢

Vladimir Fedoseev$55 Vol.4%buy Yes7.8¢buy No99.8¢

Magnus Carlsen$1,855 Vol.4%buy Yes7.8¢buy No99.8¢

Hans Niemann$1,525 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes3.9¢buy No99.7¢

Vincent Keymer$3,912 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.8¢buy No99.7¢

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave$360 Vol.1%buy Yes2.4¢buy No99.6¢

Alireza Firouzja$1,200 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.7¢

Market Context

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Rules

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

Market Context

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament Qualifiers

About

Related

Hikaru Nakamura
$1,765 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
$3,666 Vol.
96%
0123456789
%

Nodirbek Abdusattorov
$540 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

Arjun Erigaisi
$2,645 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

Ian Nepomniachtchi
$322 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Vladimir Fedoseev
$55 Vol.
4%

Magnus Carlsen
$1,855 Vol.
4%

Hans Niemann
$1,525 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Vincent Keymer
$3,912 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
$360 Vol.
1%

Alireza Firouzja
$1,200 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%