Russian forces have intensified mechanized assaults in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk direction during their Spring 2026 offensive, advancing near Hryshyne and launching repeated ground attacks towards Serhiivka—a key village on the frontline—but have not achieved confirmed entry per open-source geolocations and ISW assessments as of late March. Ukrainian defenders report hundreds of daily combat engagements in the sector, holding positions amid supply challenges highlighted in recent analyses. Over the past week, Russian advances averaged hundreds of meters nearby, while Kyiv struck Russian oil infrastructure in retaliation. Traders monitor incremental frontline shifts, upcoming mobilization deployments from April 1, and potential escalations that could tip control, with resolution hinging on verifiable footage of Russian troops inside Serhiivka boundaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$29,708 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified mechanized assaults in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk direction during their Spring 2026 offensive, advancing near Hryshyne and launching repeated ground attacks towards Serhiivka—a key village on the frontline—but have not achieved confirmed entry per open-source geolocations and ISW assessments as of late March. Ukrainian defenders report hundreds of daily combat engagements in the sector, holding positions amid supply challenges highlighted in recent analyses. Over the past week, Russian advances averaged hundreds of meters nearby, while Kyiv struck Russian oil infrastructure in retaliation. Traders monitor incremental frontline shifts, upcoming mobilization deployments from April 1, and potential escalations that could tip control, with resolution hinging on verifiable footage of Russian troops inside Serhiivka boundaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 7, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Volumen
$29,708Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 7, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified mechanized assaults in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk direction during their Spring 2026 offensive, advancing near Hryshyne and launching repeated ground attacks towards Serhiivka—a key village on the frontline—but have not achieved confirmed entry per open-source geolocations and ISW assessments as of late March. Ukrainian defenders report hundreds of daily combat engagements in the sector, holding positions amid supply challenges highlighted in recent analyses. Over the past week, Russian advances averaged hundreds of meters nearby, while Kyiv struck Russian oil infrastructure in retaliation. Traders monitor incremental frontline shifts, upcoming mobilization deployments from April 1, and potential escalations that could tip control, with resolution hinging on verifiable footage of Russian troops inside Serhiivka boundaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$29,708Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 7, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have intensified mechanized assaults in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk direction during their Spring 2026 offensive, advancing near Hryshyne and launching repeated ground attacks towards Serhiivka—a key village on the frontline—but have not achieved confirmed entry per open-source geolocations and ISW assessments as of late March. Ukrainian defenders report hundreds of daily combat engagements in the sector, holding positions amid supply challenges highlighted in recent analyses. Over the past week, Russian advances averaged hundreds of meters nearby, while Kyiv struck Russian oil infrastructure in retaliation. Traders monitor incremental frontline shifts, upcoming mobilization deployments from April 1, and potential escalations that could tip control, with resolution hinging on verifiable footage of Russian troops inside Serhiivka boundaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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